Think the global minimum tax will bite? Watch the stock market for clues

There’s a simple test for whether international moves to crack down on tax avoidance announced over the weekend are going to be effective: Check the stock market.

After all, at their core, the measures announced by the Group of Seven nations represent a plan to reduce the profits of major multinational companies. For a company like NVidia Corp., which paid an effective tax rate of 2.63% over the most recent 12-month period, news that the world’s largest economies are planning to implement a tax floor of 15% ought to represent a substantial hit to future earnings.

There’s no sign that’s happening yet.