Morgan Stanley pegs 2020 global growth at 3.2%; EMs to outperform

Uncertainties relating to trade wars, macro data from the United States (US) and reduced scope of monetary policy, however, are the three key risks it cites to its projections

After cutting their growth projections for global growth (real GDP) to a six-year low of 2.9 per cent by 2019-end in July 2019, analysts at Morgan Stanley now see a marginal recovery and expect 2019 to end with a 3 per cent growth. They, however, see retained the projection for 2020 at 3.2 per cent and expect the growth to pick up pace next year. As a result, their projection for global growth for 2021e stands at 3.5 per cent.

With the global monetary easing cycle under way since the first quarter of 2019 (1Q19) and trade tensions now easing,