IMD forecasts normal southwest monsoon rainfall in 2018

India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its first stage operational forecast for the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole has forecasted the monsoon seasonal rainfall to be 97% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm. Forecast also suggests maximum probability for normal monsoon rainfall (96-104% of LPA) and low probability for deficient rainfall during the season.

IMD will issue the update in early June, 2018 as a part of the second stage forecast. Along with the updated forecast, separate forecasts for the monthly (July and August) rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions of India will also be issued.

 

The 5 category probability forecasts for the Seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole suggest probability of rainfall to be deficient i.e. below 90% of LPA is only 14% and below normal (90-96%) is 30%. However, the probability of rainfall to be normal (96-104%) is 42%, above normal (104-110) 12% and excess (>110) is 2%.

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