India's leap in the space

Prior to the televised 10-minute address in Hindi on the noon of March 27 by the Indian prime minister, few had expected that he would be announcing the beginning of a new space age for India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared that India had successfully conducted an anti-satellite missile test, lauded the scientific establishment, emphasised that this was a measure for national security without contravention of any international law and assured that the step wasn’t aimed towards any specific state. The exercise, dubbed as “Mission Shakti”, represented a Direct Ascent Kinetic Kill, where a ballistic missile from earth without any explosive warhead destroys the targeted satellite upon impact through friction.

The Indian space programme marks half-century this year, as the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), the sixth largest in the world, was established in 1969. It has carved a niche not only through exemplary cost-effectiveness and innovative societal applications, but by hosting the largest constellation of civilian satellites in the Indo-Pacific region, the success of the Mars Orbiter Mission and creating the world record of launching 104 satellites from a single rocket. ISRO being oriented towards civilian projects, the ASAT test was under the aegis of the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). Architect of the indigenous missile programme, DRDO had been publicly expressing the intention for an ASAT test since 2012. The test was conducted through adapting India’s indigenous Ballistic Missile Defence interceptor vehicle which targeted a functioning Indian satellite at a height of 300 km from the earth in the Low Earth Orbit within three minutes.

 

Satellites enable features from civilian to military, scientific and commercial — and thereby, outer space is integral to the functioning of modern societies as a diverse range of services and devices ranging from missiles to mobiles, banking to navigation, meteorology to disaster management are irreversibly dependent upon it. The strategic utility of space was evident from the early years of the Cold War where both the USA and the erstwhile Soviet Union had historically demonstrated a wide array of space weapons including anti-satellite missiles. As the Space Age dawned with the advent of Sputnik in 1957, research and development in various types of anti-satellite systems can be traced on both sides of the Iron Curtain from this time. However, the 1980s marked the crest with President Ronald Reagan’s Strategic Defence Initiative and was followed by a prolonged trough. 

Ending decades of stability, China conducted an ASAT test in 2007 and  the USA responded a year later. Since then the USA, China and Russia have accelerated their military space activities in varying degrees and the arrival of new technologies like hypersonic glide vehicles and nano-satellites further complicates the picture. While there hasn’t been any conflict in space itself and establishing weapons in space is proscribed as per the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, strategic applications of space technology are nevertheless widespread. Deploying a weapon system in space denotes weaponisation of space and is in contravention of the Outer Space Treaty; in contrast militarisation of space entails using space for military purposes and is legitimate. 

Incidentally subsequent proposals to restrict arms race in space has been languishing in the United Nations Conference on Disarmament since the 1980s owing to opposition primarily from the United States. The European Union, Russia and China have, in the recent past, put forward various proposals ostensibly to prevent weaponisation of outer space; but platitudes notwithstanding consensus remains elusive. India has consistently opposed weaponisation of space and upholds space as a common heritage of mankind — it was the Chinese ASAT test (2007) that aggravated India’s security concerns and catalysed the establishment of an Integrated Space Cell within the ministry of defence. Outer space being integral to key strategic and civilian functions, securing assets in space has emerged a crucial priority; and India now joins the select quartet of countries in the world possessing the ability to project hard-power in space along with the USA, Russia and China.

The tests seem to be driven by considerations of security, demonstrating technological prowess, and by the rightful Indian insistence on having a voice at the high table of global politics; a recurring theme of Indian diplomacy. As the Ministry of External Affairs underlined, “India expects to play a role in the future in the drafting of international law on prevention of an arms race in outer space…in its capacity as a major space faring nation with proven space technology.” The selection of the target at the Low Earth Orbit aimed to prevent space debris since space pollution is a universal concern. Further the assertion of upholding international conventions signalled India’s desire to be perceived as a responsible global player — the Chinese ASAT test of 2007, for instance, had been condemned globally for lack of transparency and generating the largest amount of space debris in history.

The unequivocal assertion about the military nature of the tests is welcome for a country where enduring amnesia about the role of force in international relations circumscribes its emergence as a great power. Space assets had been harnessed for ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) functions — cross-border raids and aerial strikes like that of post-Uri and Balakot, being facilitated through satellite reconnaissance and remote sensing, for example — but the ASAT test establishes a new aspect to the deterrence matrix. Yet space power cannot be optimally utilised in the absence of an Integrated Space Command and a cohesive space doctrine. The test conclusively establishes India as a preeminent space power, but it remains to be seen whether political will sustains subsequent steps crucial to consolidate this momentum. 

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Pant is director, studies at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi; Set is a PhD candidate at King’s College, London