You are here: Home » US Elections » News
Business Standard

US Presidential elections: Wall Street looks for signal from the noise

Wall Street will be closely watching a few dozen counties on Tuesday night for hints on who will win the US presidential race

Topics
US Presidential elections 2020 | Wall Street | Donald Trump

Reuters  |  Washington/Boston 

us presidential elections, mail-in, voting, ballot, polls
A voter deposits a ballot into an official ballot drop box in Washington DC | Photo: Bloomberg

From the beach towns of Pinellas, Florida, to the suburbs of Bucks County, Pennsylvania, will be closely watching a few dozen counties on Tuesday night for hints on who will win the US presidential race.

Investment firms, faced with the prospect of a chaotic election complicated by an unprecedented number of mail-in ballots, have hired political analysts and crunched voting data to try to identify crucial counties and Senate races that might tell them which way the vote is headed.

Pinellas, home to St Peter­sburg-Clearwater, has picked the winner of every presidential election since 1980 except for the disputed 2000 vote. Bucks County, north of Phila­delphia, is seen as an indicator of suburban enthusiasm for Democratic contender

The calculus is by no means definitive or comprehensive.

With Democrats more likely than Republicans to vote early, for example, initial results from some counties could show a strong Biden lead that gets tempered or reversed as in-person ballots are counted.

“They are trying to find the signal from the noise. It can seem overwhelming,” said Andy Lewin, who works with financial services clients for Washington lobbyist BGR Group. He sees Pinellas and another county in Florida, Sumter, as bellwethers for older voters. If Biden outperforms Hillary Clinton — the Dem­ocratic candidate in 2016 — in Pinellas, or if President loses his margin of victory from 2016 in Sumter, the Republican is unlikely to be re-elected, he said.

“They are great proxies for investors on where the election is headed,” Lewin said.

Dear Reader,


Business Standard has always strived hard to provide up-to-date information and commentary on developments that are of interest to you and have wider political and economic implications for the country and the world. Your encouragement and constant feedback on how to improve our offering have only made our resolve and commitment to these ideals stronger. Even during these difficult times arising out of Covid-19, we continue to remain committed to keeping you informed and updated with credible news, authoritative views and incisive commentary on topical issues of relevance.
We, however, have a request.

As we battle the economic impact of the pandemic, we need your support even more, so that we can continue to offer you more quality content. Our subscription model has seen an encouraging response from many of you, who have subscribed to our online content. More subscription to our online content can only help us achieve the goals of offering you even better and more relevant content. We believe in free, fair and credible journalism. Your support through more subscriptions can help us practise the journalism to which we are committed.

Support quality journalism and subscribe to Business Standard.

Digital Editor

First Published: Tue, November 03 2020. 00:18 IST