India's oil demand to hit 9 mn bpd by 2050; coal to stay dominant: BP

BP projects India's oil demand to grow 80% by 2050 even as renewables surge; coal to retain over 40% share in the energy mix under current trajectory

Renewables are set to grow strongly in India, driven by solar and wind, but coal will remain the dominant source of energy in the “current trajectory” scenario, said global energy giant BP.

 

India’s oil demand is expected to grow to nine million barrels per day (bpd) in 2050, accounting for 10 per cent of total global consumption, up from five million bpd in 2023, said Spencer Dole, chief economist at BP.

 

Coal is likely to remain India’s largest source of energy in BP’s “current trajectory” scenario, with its share in the total energy mix staying above 40 per cent in 2050, while dropping sharply to 16 per cent in the “Below 2 Degree” scenario.

 

 

Coal dominance persists under current trajectory

 

The “current trajectory” scenario reflects the broad pathway along which the global energy system is currently travelling, while the “Below 2 Degree” scenario explores how the system might evolve if the world achieves much deeper cuts in emissions.

 

The energy giant expects consumption of natural gas in the country to grow by 1–3 per cent annually till 2050, with industrial demand emerging as the key growth driver. 

 

BP said India’s primary energy consumption will grow strongly, with the country accounting for 12 per cent of the world’s demand by 2050 in both scenarios, up from 7 per cent in 2023.

 

“Energy demand increases in all scenarios, driven by robust economic growth and rising prosperity. Renewables grow strongly, driven by solar and wind, but coal remains dominant in the current trajectory,” the company said.

 

Electricity and renewables to drive future energy growth

 

Electricity plays an increasingly important role in meeting India’s energy needs, BP said. By 2050, energy consumed in the form of electricity will grow to over 30 per cent in BP’s “current trajectory” and around 50 per cent in the “Below 2 Degree” scenario, up from about 20 per cent in 2023.

 

In the “current trajectory” scenario, renewable energy is set to become India’s second-largest source of primary energy in 2050, and the largest in the “Below 2 Degree” scenario.

 

India’s carbon emissions are expected to increase by around 60 per cent between 2023 and 2050 in BP’s “current trajectory,” while emissions decline by almost 70 per cent in the “Below 2 Degree” scenario.

 

BP expects India’s economy to grow at a rate of 5 per cent annually during the 2023–2050 period — double the rate of growth of the global economy.