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Global energy giant BP expects world oil demand to peak at 103 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, according to its annual energy outlook. This revises last year’s forecast, which had projected a peak in 2025.
In BP’s “current trajectory” scenario, global oil demand is expected to fall to 83 million bpd by 2050 after peaking in 2030. Under its “below 2-degrees” scenario, demand peaks earlier, in 2025, at 102.2 million bpd, before falling to 33.8 million bpd by 2050.
The “current trajectory” scenario reflects the broad pathway along which the global energy system is currently travelling, while the “below 2-degrees” scenario explores how the system might evolve if the world achieves much deeper cuts in emissions.
“Demand is supported by increasing use in India and other emerging Asian countries as their economies continue to grow rapidly, partially offset by continuing declines in developed markets,” BP said in the report.
Despite the rapid growth in renewable energy, oil remains the largest source of primary energy supply over most of the outlook in BP’s “current trajectory” scenario. Oil is projected to provide 30 per cent of global energy inputs in 2035, down only slightly from its current share.
The share of renewables is expected to rise from about one-tenth of primary energy in 2023 to more than 15 per cent in 2035, driven by growing electrification and the increasing penetration of wind and solar power.
BP said renewables’ share of primary energy would surpass coal in the early 2040s and overtake oil towards the end of that decade. By 2050, renewables and natural gas are each expected to provide around a quarter of the world’s primary energy, while the combined share of nuclear and hydropower is projected to remain broadly flat at around 5 per cent.
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