Russian imports set to hit 4-year low amid tariff chaos, refinery shutdown

Four years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Western measures to restrict Russian crude oil flows are beginning to have a real impact as the Trump administration steps up pressure on India

Indian imports of Russian oil will plunge to the lowest level in April, four years after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 — which sparked a geopolitical-cum-energy crisis — as refiners seek directions from New Delhi and India’s second biggest refinery prepares to shut down, industry sources said.  Purchases of Russian crude may average 800,000–1 million barrels per day (bpd) in March and dip below 500,000 bpd in April, a shipping analyst and senior refining officials said. Imports of Russian oil may subsequently pick up after both nations sign a trade deal — delayed after the US Supreme Court struck down some of US President Donald Trump’s powers to levy tariffs — the officials said.  Russian Rosneft-controlled Nayara Energy, which operates a 400,000 bpd refinery at Vadinar in Gujarat, plans to shut down the facility in early April for over a month for a total turnaround, or a scheduled maintenance programme, a senior industry source said, eliminating a corresponding volume of Russian oil. Nayara was not available for comment.  India may sustain Russian crude oil imports at 800,000 bpd in March, Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia said, but purchases may dip sharply in April 2026 because of the shutdown, he added.  Russia loaded only 727,000 bpd in February, scheduled to reach India in March. However, several million barrels of Russian oil stored in tankers are idling in the Arabian Sea, enabling Indian refiners to access additional oil at a week’s notice, a senior trader in India said.  Indian imports of Russian oil were below 500,000 bpd last in April 2022, a month after the invasion.  Nayara’s shutdown will slash imports of Russian medium, sour Urals grade by 400,000 bpd, according to ship-tracking data. After being sanctioned by the European Union last year, Nayara lost access to term crude oil supplies from Gulf suppliers and other western global trading firms — leaving it dependent on oil supplied by its Russian parent, according to shipping and EU data. Nayara imported 410,000 bpd of crude oil from Russia in January and 366,000 bpd in February.  Western measures to restrict Russian crude oil flows are starting to have a real impact, UK-based information provider Energy Intelligence said. February exports of Russian oil globally averaged just 2.7 million bpd, compared to 3.4 million bpd in January, it said, attributing the decline to lower Indian imports.  Slow Russian purchases  New Delhi had told Indian refiners informally last month to substantially slow Russian oil purchases until the trade agreement was signed, the officials said. But refiners still continued to lift baseload volumes of Russian oil of 20–25 per cent of their total crude imports, without interference from Washington, senior industry officials said.  State-run refiner Indian Oil bought 560,000 bpd in January, the highest since July 2023, and Bharat Petroleum imported 222,000 bpd, for orders booked in November.  Purchases were cut by 20–25 per cent in February and will be further reduced in March and April, despite discounts on Russian oil on a delivered basis off Dated European crude oil benchmark Brent expanding to $12 per barrel, the widest since 2023, two senior refining officials said.  India’s oil ministry was not available for comment, even though Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has time and again said that the government does not interfere with crude sourcing.  “In our conversations with India, we’ve gotten their commitment to stop buying additional Russian oil,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at the Munich Security Conference in mid-February, tacitly acknowledging baseload import allowances. Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar spoke of “strategic autonomy” at the event when asked about Russian oil purchases.  Imports of Russian oil in February declined to the lowest level since November 2022 at 1.12 million bpd, 6 per cent down from January and 24 per cent lower from a year earlier, according to Kpler. Indian Oil was the biggest buyer of Russian oil at 420,000 bpd in February, Kpler data showed.  Reliance Industries resumed purchases of Russian oil in February after stopping imports in January in response to the EU strictures on companies barring exports of fuels using Russian oil in their refineries. It bought five cargoes, or 132,000 bpd, down from a 2025 average of 595,000 bpd.  Both of its refineries have their own pipelines and separate single buoy mooring systems to receive and transport oil, an industry source said. Russian cargoes are currently brought to the unit located in the domestic area, insulating the facility located in the special economic zone from the impact of EU sanctions, the source said. Reliance declined to comment.  Russia was India’s biggest crude oil supplier in February, a position it has held for 45 straight months, according to shipping data. It secured a 21 per cent share of India’s overall February imports of a record 5.3 million bpd, compared to 31 per cent a year earlier and 46 per cent in May 2023.   

	February	January	December	November*	2025 average
Reliance	131	0	316	575	595
Nayara	364	410	329	408	302
Indian Oil	420	560	483	392	315
Bharat Petroleum	175	222	119	191	187
HMEL	0	0	27	116	153
MRPL	0	0	0	118	109
Overall total imports	1117	1192	1274	1858	1728

 

     

Source Kpler, In 000 barrels per day  *Stringent US sanctions begin