New Canada PM Mark Carney's immigration stance & impact on Indians: Decoded

Mark Carney, the new leader of Canada's ruling Liberal Party and the next prime minister, has said he would cap immigration until it returns to pre-pandemic levels. At the same time, he is looking to rebuild ties with India, which have been strained in recent years.

 

Carney’s immigration stance and its impact on Indians

 

In February 2025, Carney’s campaign outlined economic and housing plans ahead of the first leadership debate in Montreal. He said his government would increase spending on housing, clean energy, and new trade routes to reduce reliance on the United States. He also stated that immigration levels would be capped until they align with pre-pandemic trends.

 

 

Beyond this, Carney has largely avoided addressing immigration.

 

"He hasn’t really addressed the issue of immigration so far. It is likely that he will not change the current policy," Darshan Maharaja, a Canada-based immigration analyst told Business Standard.

 

"The issue looming large over Canada right now is the tariffs war with the US, so he is unlikely to be pressed on the immigration issue," he added.

 

During his victory speech, Carney avoided discussing immigration but responded to Donald Trump’s trade war and the suggestion that Canada could become America’s 51st state by saying, "No way!"

 

Jack Kim, a partner at US-based law firm Fragomen, told Business Standard that tariffs would increase the cost of living for all residents, including Indian nationals working or studying in Canada. "In certain industries, both the tariffs and retaliatory tariffs may lead to layoffs or loss of revenue, tightening job opportunities," he said.

 

However, Kim noted that immigration restrictions had not been directly linked to tariffs. "We have seen cases elsewhere where enhanced vetting of immigration applications was used as a bargaining tool. We are monitoring whether this could happen in Canada, but there are no signals yet. The tariffs themselves have had little impact on immigration or permanent residence pathways so far, though this may change depending on Canada’s economic situation in 2025," he said.

 

Rebuilding relations with India

 

Carney has also signalled a desire to improve ties with India, which deteriorated under his predecessor, Justin Trudeau. The former Bank of England governor wants to diversify Ottawa’s trade relationships, including with New Delhi.

 

Before his election, Carney discussed US tariffs on Canada in a media interaction in Calgary. "What Canada will be looking to do is to diversify our trading relationships with like-minded countries, and there are opportunities to rebuild the relationship with India," he said.

 

Any effort to mend ties is likely to be welcomed by New Delhi, particularly as Trump’s tariff threats affect both nations. With Canada being a key destination for Indian migrants, India may also push the new government on immigration restrictions and visa policies.

 

India-Canada relations under strain

 

Relations between the two countries reached a low point after Trudeau alleged in September 2023 that Indian agents were involved in the killing of Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. India denied the allegations as "baseless." Both governments expelled top diplomats, and Ottawa paused negotiations on the Early Progress Trade Agreement.

 

Since 2023, the Trudeau government introduced measures to control immigration, citing concerns over housing shortages, cost of living, and labour market pressures. The key policy changes include:

 

Permanent residency targets reduced

< In October 2024, Canada lowered its immigration targets, cutting permanent resident admissions from 500,000 to 395,000 in 2025, then 380,000 in 2026, and 365,000 in 2027—a 21% reduction.

< The change followed concerns that rapid population growth was straining housing availability and public services.

 

Cap on international student visas

< In January 2024, Canada imposed a two-year cap on international student permits to address housing affordability and resource strain.

< The cap extended into 2025, with a further 10% reduction in student permit approvals.

< Master’s and doctoral students, previously exempt, are now affected.

 

Temporary foreign worker restrictions

< In September 2024, new rules reduced the proportion of low-wage temporary foreign workers an employer can hire from 20% to 10%.

< The government also tightened labour market assessments, making it harder for businesses to recruit foreign workers in non-essential sectors.

 

Stricter work permit rules for graduates

< In March 2024, Canada revised work permit policies for international graduates. Only those who studied at public institutions or select private institutions now qualify for post-graduation work permits.

< The move aimed to curb the rise of "diploma mills"—colleges with minimal academic standards operating primarily to facilitate immigration.

 

Polls indicate growing public opposition to high immigration levels due to economic concerns. Once known for an open-door policy, the Liberal government has adjusted its stance under pressure from voters and provincial governments struggling with housing shortages.