US student visas hit four-year low as arrivals from India plunge 45%

Student arrivals to the US fell 19% in August to 313,000, the lowest since 2021. Asia and Africa saw the sharpest declines amid tighter visa rules

Visitors arriving in the United States on student visas fell to a four-year low in August, marking the fifth month in a row of declines. According to data from the International Trade Administration, student arrivals dropped 19 per cent year-on-year to just over 313,000. That is the lowest number for August, a peak month for new enrolments, since the Covid disruption of 2021.

 

For the year through August, student arrivals are down nearly 12 per cent. The downturn coincides with a summer of tighter immigration rules under President Donald Trump, which universities say has created fresh hurdles for international applicants.

 

 

US Studnet Visa Sharpest fall in Asia

 

Asia, which supplies the majority of US-bound students, recorded the steepest fall. Numbers dropped 24 per cent to about 191,000 in August, with arrivals from India down 45 per cent and from China down 12 per cent. Thirteen of Asia’s largest source markets, including Japan and Vietnam, reported declines.

 

Africa posted the biggest percentage drop of any region at 33 per cent, though from a smaller base. Western Europe saw the smallest fall of less than 1 per cent.

 

US Billions in lost revenue

 

The American education sector is bracing for further losses in September. According to NAFSA: Association of International Educators, the current fall in student enrolments would mean about $7 billion in lost revenue.

 

International students contributed nearly $44 billion to the US economy in 2023–24 and supported almost 400,000 jobs. According to NAFSA, every three international students help create one US job. 

 

Visa backlogs add to pressure

 

The US State Department temporarily paused student visa interviews in late May and introduced new vetting procedures, including reviews of applicants’ social media profiles. The changes created backlogs at embassies and consulates and delayed many students’ travel plans.

 

The arrival data does not distinguish between new and returning students. Some may have chosen to remain in the US rather than risk scrutiny when re-entering, said officials.

 

“The overall political environment in the US is already resulting in other countries like the UK becoming more attractive – and more importantly welcoming – destinations for higher studies,” said Atul Gupta, partner for labour and employment at Trilegal.

 

He added, “An F1 visa currently offers students the ability to stay in the US for Optional Practical Training (OPT) for a couple more years, and this talent pool is hired by US-based employers without going through the H-1B process. While the changes in H-1B do impact long-term career aspirations for most students, their access to training and experience in the US after graduation still remains available through the OPT programme.”

 

Shantanu Gangal, co-founder and chief executive of Prodigal, a Silicon Valley startup, said the new H-1B fee has shifted the calculation for many students. “The $100,000 annual fee on H-1B visas makes the traditional pathway of pursuing an MBA or master’s in the US much harder to justify. For many students, the return on investment won’t add up when sponsorships become more selective and debt levels remain high. I’ve experienced this first-hand. My H-1B visa wasn’t picked three times, and I know the anxiety and uncertainty that comes with it,” he said.