High temperatures, low rains could impact rabi crops in Feb, says IMD

'Neutral' El Nino conditions likely till July, says the Met department

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Saturday said that both maximum and minimum temperatures over most parts of the country is expected to be ‘above-normal’ in February this year, and rainfall over Northwest India could be ‘below average’, increasing the possibility of adverse impact on standing rabi crops.

 

Below normal cold wave days are likely over several parts of Northwest and adjoining central India, the Met department said.

 

However, what could come as a saviour is that more than 80 per cent of the wheat crop sown in North India nowadays is under climate resistant varieties and the region is also highly irrigated. Overall, across India, total irrigation coverage was not close to 55 per cent in FY21, against around 49.3 per cent in FY16.

 

 

The IMD meanwhile, in its all India monthly forecast for February, said that above normal temperatures over Northwest and Central India, comprising states of Punjab, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan etc could accelerate crop growth and shorten the crop duration of rabi crops.

 

Crops like wheat and barley may experience forced maturity, leading to sterile spikelet’s and chaffy grains, resulting in yield reduction.

 

Climate effect on pulses, veggies and fruits

 

In oilseeds and pulses such as mustard, chickpea, lentil and field peas, warmer than normal weather leads to early flowering and premature maturity, resulting in poor pod development, reduced seed size and lower yields, the IMD said, adding warmed conditions may also favour rapid multiplication of aphids and other sucking pests.

 

In vegetable crops such as potato, onion, garlic, tomato, cauliflower, cabbage, and peas, warm weather may adversely affect critical stages like tuber initiation, bulb development, flowering, and fruit setting, while elevated temperatures can induce bolting in onion and garlic, reduce tuber bulking in potato, lead to flower drop in tomato thereby lowering yield and market value.

 

In horticulture crops such as mango, citrus, banana, and grapes, ‘above normal’ temperatures might lead to early flowering, uneven fruit set and increased fruit drop.

 

“These crop advisories and impact has been prepared by IMD in association with the department of agriculture for which farmers need to be prepared,” IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told reporters.

 

On the vexed question of conditions of El Nino and its impact on Indian monsoon in 2026, the IMD chief said that according to their latest assessment, ‘neutral’ conditions are likely to prevail till July 2026 with a possibility of El Nino setting in after that. However, any firm assessment of EL Nino cannot be made six months in advance, and a clearer picture will emerge only around April 2026.

 

“Currently, La Niña conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) being below normal over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Atmospheric conditions continue to support the La Niña phase. The latest forecast from global met centres and Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) indicates that La Niña conditions are likely to transit to ENSO-neutral conditions during the February–March-April 2026 period,” Mohapatra said.

 

On the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is another weather phenomenon that has a bearing on Indian monsoon, the IMD chief said that ‘neutral’ IOD is expected to prevail in the pre-monsoon months of June to July 2026.

 

On Friday, India’s leading private weather forecasting agency, Skymet, said most climate models are now predicting a return of El Nino in the second half of 2026 that will pick-up strength in the middle of the Indian monsoon season and peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter.

 

“Such a development heightens the risk of weather variability, more severely over South Asia, suppressing monsoon rainfall over India,” Skynet’s founder and chairman Jain Singh said in a note released on Friday.

 

The IMD, meanwhile, in its February forecast also said that not only in Northwest India, below-normal rainfall is also likely over most other parts of the country. Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during February 2026 is 81 per cent of Long Period Average (LPA).

 

The met also said that monthly minimum temperatures during February 2026 are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country, except some regions of South Peninsular India where normal minimum temperatures are expected and above normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except isolated regions of Central India and the southern parts of peninsular India, where normal maximum temperatures are likely.

 

Six die due to harsh weather in January

 

The IMD, citing information received from media reports, said that in January, six persons were reportedly killed, one was injured, and two livestock were reported lost due to harsh weather. Of these, two fatalities, one each from Tikamgarh district of Madhya Pradesh and Una district of Himachal Pradesh, were reported due  to cold wave conditions. Two others died in lightning incidents; one injury, and one livestock loss were reported in parts of Rajasthan (Dausa, Kota, and Sikar districts), while two deaths and one livestock loss were reported due to lightning in Uttar Pradesh (Aligarh, Baghpat, and Gautam Buddha Nagar districts).