Has India's farm output finally become less dependent on the monsoon?

As India faces a below-normal monsoon forecast for 2026, improved irrigation, resilient seeds and policy support have strengthened farm output, though regional risks and inflation concerns persist

Earlier this month, perhaps for the first time in more than a decade, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted a ‘below normal’ monsoon in 2026 at 92 per cent of the long period average (LPA), with a modelling error of plus/minus 5 per cent.

 

This means that, if the predictions hold, the 2026 monsoon is expected to be closer to 80 centimetres, as against the LPA of 87 cm.

 

Some weeks before the IMD's announcement, private weather forecasting agency Skymet, too, had forecast that June-September rains were cumulatively expected to be 6 per cent ‘below normal’ this year at 94 per cent of the long period average (LPA) due to the adverse impact of El Niño.

 

In fact, Skymet was among the first weather agencies that had predicted a severe El Niño for India, and has been warning about its possible ‘negative’ impact as far back as January 2026.

Will the spatial distribution of monsoon rains impact farm output?

What is worrying for policymakers and the administration, though, is not the cumulative number but whether the spatial distribution of the monsoon this year will be even.

 

As per IMD’s first forecast, almost all parts of India, barring the extreme Northeast, some pockets of the Northwest, and South Peninsular India, are likely to see ‘below normal’ rains this year. If accurate, this means almost all parts of India will receive low rainfall this year. The IMD will release a more granular region-wise forecast by the end of May, when the real impact of El Niño becomes clearer.

 

Skymet has gone a step further. In its April forecast, it has predicted that in June, ‘above-normal’ rains are expected only over the Indo-Gangetic plains and the Western Ghats. In July, ‘below-normal’ rains are expected over the north, west, and central parts of the country.

Has India’s agriculture become more resilient to weak monsoons?

A worried Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has already started holding meetings to review the situation and to plan contingency measures. Its assessment is that the overall impact on agriculture of El Niño or low rains is likely to remain muted compared to earlier decades due to comfortable water reservoir levels and improved irrigation.

 

The government’s assessment is that between 2000 and 2016, El Niño events had a more pronounced effect on farm output due to higher dependence on rainfall and relatively weaker mitigation systems.

 

In recent years, however, expanded irrigation networks, better water conservation practices, improved farm management, and wider use of high-yielding and resilient seed varieties have brought greater stability to food production.

 

Recent data seems to bear out the government’s thinking so far, even if not entirely. Data shows that since 2015, India has had three below-normal monsoon years — 2017, 2018, and 2023. But in none of those years was there a major dip in foodgrain production as compared to the previous year; on the contrary, it was higher.

What factors now drive India’s food production trends?

A regression analysis for the period between 2012-13 and 2022-23, done by the research wing of industry body PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PHDCCI) a few years ago and published as part of a report titled India's Agricultural Transformation: From Food Scarcity to Surplus, showed that the correlation between rainfall and foodgrain production is only ‘moderately positive’.

 

However, that correlation becomes ‘strongly positive’ when it comes to prices, electricity, fertiliser availability, and irrigation coverage. Warehousing capacity and foodgrain production also show a ‘weak correlation’.

 

In other words, the analysis suggests that India’s foodgrain production is increasingly influenced by factors such as prices, electricity consumption, warehousing capacity, and the rise in gross irrigated area, and less by monsoon rainfall.

 

Experts said that a big reason for this growing resilience could be India’s rising irrigation coverage, which moved up from 49.3 per cent to 55 per cent of the gross cropped area (GCA) between FY16 and FY21.

How have irrigation and seeds improved farm resilience?

Increased usage of climate-resistant seeds and better availability of a social security net has also reduced some of the fear associated with a weaker monsoon until a few decades ago.

 

Horticulture crops, which traditionally suffer the most in the event of a low monsoon, have also managed to withstand the impact of low rains, barring the occasional dip.

 

“Our horticulture production has increased, first, due to improved irrigation efficiency — micro-irrigation in horticulture — adoption of hybrid varieties in vegetable crops, which helped enhance yield by two to three times in different crops, and adoption of climate-resilient varieties,” said Prof Suresh Malhotra, vice chancellor of Horticulture University, Karnal, and a former horticulture and agriculture commissioner to the Government of India.

 

He said farmers now have a number of low-water horticulture options, such as tuber crops (yams, colocasia, sweet potato), cucurbits (melons, gourds etc), arid fruit crops (aonla, ber, pomegranate, bael, fig, jamun, sapota etc), which give good produce even during low rains and hence are also called 'crops of adversity'.

 

Data shows that the area under micro-irrigation in horticulture crops in India has risen from 0.33 per cent in 2015-16 to almost 56 per cent in 2023-24.

What risks remain despite improved resilience?

Ratings agency India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) in its recent assessment said that El Niño 2026 is unlikely to cause systemic rural credit stress, with risks remaining lagged, localised, and state-specific.

 

It said that rain-fed Maharashtra and parts of Karnataka face the highest exposure, while Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh benefit from stronger irrigation cover.

 

“Credit sensitivity is highest for non-bank finance companies-microfinance institutions (NBFC-MFIs), tractor and agri-equipment finance, and agri-linked MSMEs. Large, diversified NBFCs are expected to absorb volatility without lasting asset quality impact unless the shocks compound,” it said in the report.

 

But concerns remain, nonetheless.

 

The Solvent Extractors’ Association, in a recent note, stated that the complex interplay of biodiesel expansion, weather risks associated with El Niño, and geopolitics is setting the stage for a more constrained global palm oil balance going into 2026-27.

 

Dr B V Mehta, executive director of the industry body, said that the likelihood of El Niño conditions could drive up the risk of higher edible oil import demand in the second half of the year if domestic oilseed output is impacted due to low rains. This also means that if import dependency on edible oils and pulses goes up in FY27, there could be considerable inflation risks that could add to the spike in energy prices due to the West Asia conflict.

 

“India's southwest monsoon forecast stands at 92 per cent of the long period average, with a developing El Niño likely to suppress rainfall through the season. This is not a new threat. Between 2001 and 2020, India saw seven El Niño years — with droughts in 2003, 2005, 2009-10, and 2015-16 — impacting kharif output by anywhere between 3 per cent and 16 per cent. And yet, the sector has consistently recovered. That recovery, each time, is evidence of structural resilience — even if still uneven," said Amith Agarwal, co-founder and chief executive officer of StarAgri, one of India’s leading integrated agri-tech solutions groups. "What's changed is the depth of tools we now have. The 'Per Drop More Crop' initiative covers over 95 lakh hectares, with Rs 21,968 crore released to states in FY25 for micro-irrigation. PMFBY has paid out Rs 1.83 trillion in insurance claims since 2016, with non-loanee farmer participation rising steadily. One hundred and nine climate-resilient, bio-fortified crop varieties were also released in 2024, investments that will outlast any single deficient season."

 

He said a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may partially offset El Niño's impact this season, and that should inform calibrated, not panicked, planning.

 

“The priority for the months ahead must be threefold: contingency crop planning in rain-deficient districts, accelerating smart irrigation in the most vulnerable geographies, and, critically, ensuring post-harvest infrastructure can absorb supply-side shocks so farmers aren't forced into distress sales when the market needs them most. India has weathered El Niño before. The question is whether we use this window to build deeper buffers, or wait to react once the damage is done,” Agarwal said.