Banking liquidity turns deficit in 2026 on tax outflows, weak RBI support

India's banking system liquidity slumped into a substantial deficit for the first time in 2026, as heavy tax outflows and currency market intervention drained cash balances that have not been replenished by offsetting inflows from the central bank.

 

The banking system liquidity deficit widened to around ₹65,900 crore ($7.01 billion), the highest since December 29 and a sharp reversal from the daily average surplus of around ₹2.50 trillion recorded between February 1 and March 15.

 

The gap is "on account of FX intervention and frictional factors like GST outflows and advance tax outflows," said Sakshi Gupta, principal economist at HDFC Bank.

   

"However, we anticipate liquidity conditions to improve by month-end."

 

Banking system liquidity often takes a hit towards the end of India's fiscal year which runs through March 31, temporarily pushing up super-short-term borrowing costs.

 

Around $20 billion of intervention by the central bank in March to support the local currency in the face of pressure from the war in the West Asia is also contributing to a rupee liquidity shortfall that has pushed overnight rates around 10 basis points above the RBI policy rate.

 

The weighted average call rate was at 5.35% on Monday, after remaining below 5.25% between February 1 and March 15.

 

After injecting nearly ₹1.80 trillion into the banking system through bond purchases in the first two weeks of the month, the RBI has been relying on variable-rate repos, which have not seen a strong response from banks.

 

Market participants believe the liquidity stress is unlikely to persist beyond March 31.

 

"The liquidity deficit is likely to ease towards the end of March, led by year-end and month-end government spending, even as consistent foreign exchange intervention and year-end demand for funds may offset it somewhat," said Madhavi Arora, an economist at Emkay Global.

 

Meanwhile, HDFC Bank's Gupta said there is space for the announcement of further open-market operations or longer-term VRRs, which would depend on the extent of liquidity drag stemming from the central bank's FX market intervention.