Mixed Q4 seen for top realty players amid launch delays, softer sentiment

West Asia conflict weighs on margins; prolonged war a risk to profitability

Top-listed real estate developers are likely to report mixed pre-sales performance for the fourth quarter of 2025-2026 (Q4 FY26). This is due to delays in planned launches and softer demand sentiment amid an uncertain macro environment caused by the West Asia war. 

“Q4 FY26 performance will be relatively slower compared to expectations before the start of the geopolitical tensions. Quite a few launches planned for March have been delayed, and a general climate of fear would have softened response for the launches that actually happened. Sales moderation across the top Indian cities and top developers will be there,” said Karan Khanna, lead analyst for mid-small cap, real estate, aviation and properties at Ambit Capital. 

Analysts at Nomura expect pre-sales growth from Lodha Developers, DLF, and Oberoi Realty on last year’s low base. 

On the other hand, they expect declines from Godrej Properties and Prestige Estates Projects on last year’s high base. 

Santhosh Kumar, vice-chairman, Anarock Group, expects Q4 FY26 to see a slowdown of about 6–8 per cent compared to the previous quarter. This is because the previous quarter had a high base effect and homebuyers were hesitant. However, the overall pre-sales of top developers remain resilient amid strong fundamental demand for premium housing and branded developers, analysts say. 

DLF’s pre-sales will be largely driven by the launch of a new phase of Dahlias, its ultra-luxury project in Gurugram. 

Lodha launched three projects during the quarter — two in Mumbai and one in Pune. Oberoi’s performance will be driven by resilient sustenance of sales, and partial inventory launch of Sky City Tower H in Borivali and some higher-floor inventory in Elysian Towers in Goregaon (both in Mumbai). Prestige launched three projects during the quarter, while Godrej launched six, according to a report by Nomura. 

For FY26 guidance, analysts at Nomura expect Godrej (guidance of ₹32,500 crore) and Prestige (₹26,000 crore) to beat their FY26 pre-sales guidance. 

Lodha (₹21,000 crore) and DLF (₹20,000-22,000 crore) are expected to achieve 98-99 per cent of their FY26 pre-sales guidance. In terms of earnings, analysts expect a “healthy uptick” for the quarter and sustained 10 per cent growth for the next 2-3 years, benefiting from consolidation in the sector.

 

Sumit Kumar, real estate research analyst at JM Financial Institutional Securities, said: “Most of the listed developers have a very large project completion pipeline in the near term, given the significant launches they had over FY22-24. Hence, there should be a healthy uptick in topline for the listed universe. However, if the geopolitical uncertainty persists for a prolonged period, there is a reasonable risk to profitability on account of the rising cost of the construction material basket.” 

According to Khanna, construction costs have already increased by 10-15 per cent. For FY26, margins should have already compressed by 1-2 percentage points. 

Akshay Shetty, research analyst at Mirae Asset ShareKhan, stated that large developers focusing on the premium/luxury segment, supported by sizeable land banks, strong balance sheets, and disciplined pricing, are expected to see limited margin impact in Q4. 

Additionally, companies with vendor lock-ins and pre-contracted costs are likely to face relatively lower cost pressures. 

However, the industry experts emphasised that while the impact on balance sheets remains limited so far, a prolonged conflict could hit cash flows if cost pressures persist.