US-Venezuela conflict unlikely to affect India trade: GTRI report

The US-Venezuela conflict will have a negligible impact on India's trade with the South American country, think tank GTRI said on Sunday.

On January 4, American forces carried out a large military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolas Maduro and his wife and taking them to the US to face various charges, including narco-terrorism and drug trafficking.

"India faces negligible impact, as trade with Venezuela has collapsed under sanctions, with crude imports down 81.3 per cent in FY2025 and overall bilateral trade remaining marginal," the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) Founder Ajay Srivastava said.

For India, he said, the Venezuelan disturbance is unlikely to have any material economic or energy impact.

 

Although India was a major buyer of Venezuelan crude in the 2000s and 2010s, bilateral engagement has weakened sharply since 2019 due to US sanctions, which forced India to cut oil imports and scale back commercial activity to avoid secondary sanctions, he added.

As a result, Srivastava said India's trade with Venezuela is now small and declining.

In FY2025, India's total imports from Venezuela were just $ 364.5 million, of which crude oil accounted for $ 255.3 million, an 81.3 per cent drop from $ 1.4 billion in crude imports in FY2024.

India's exports to Venezuela were modest at $ 95.3 million, led by pharmaceuticals worth $ 41.4 million.

"Given the low trade volumes, existing sanctions constraints, and the large geographical distance, the current developments in Venezuela are not expected to have any meaningful impact on India's economy or energy security," he said.

Venezuela holds about 18 per cent of the world's oil reserves, more than Saudi Arabia (around 16 per cent), Russia (about 5-6 per cent), or the United States (around 4 per cent).