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After Axis, HDFC Bank, investors eye ICICI Bank Q3 results; what to expect?

ICICI Bank Q3 results preview: ICICI Bank is scheduled to report its December quarter results on Saturday, January 25, 2025

ICICI Bank

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Nikita Vashisht New Delhi

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ICICI Bank Q3 preview: ICICI Bank share price has tumbled 4 per cent since the announcement of Axis Bank’s December quarter results on January 16 as investors feared that higher delinquencies in unsecured retail segment, seen in the latter’s results, may be seen in ICICI Bank’s Q3 results as well.
 
Analysts, however, expect ICICI Bank to see stable asset quality with lower slippages. The bank’s Q3 profit, they said, may decline around 2 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis amid a soft loan-growth environment. It would still grow in the low double digit on a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis.
 
 
In the December quarter of the previous financial year (Q3FY24), ICICI Bank reported net profit of Rs 10,271.5 crore. The same was Rs 11,745.9 crore in the September quarter of the current financial year (Q2FY25).
 
ICICI Bank’s net interest income (NII) in Q3FY24 stood at Rs 18,678.6 crore, which rose to Rs 20,048 crore in Q2FY25.
 

ICICI Bank Q3 results date and time

ICICI Bank is scheduled to report its December quarter results on Saturday, January 25.
 
“We wish to inform you that the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank is scheduled to be held on Saturday, January 25, 2025, to, inter alia, consider and approve the unaudited financial results (standalone and consolidated) for the quarter and nine months ending December 31, 2024,” it said in a stock exchange filing.
 

ICICI Bank Q3 results 2025 expectations:

 

Nomura

Global brokerage Nomura sees ICICI Bank reporting muted growth in loans and deposits amid an industry-wide slowdown.
 
It pegs ICICI Bank’s loan book at Rs 13.15 trillion, up 14 per cent Y-o-Y and 3 per cent Q-o-Q. Deposits, on the other hand, are seen at Rs 15.18 trillion, up 14 per cent Y-o-Y and 1 per cent Q-o-Q.
 
This implies a net interest income (NII) of Rs 20,450 crore, up 9 per cent Y-o-Y and 2 per cent Q-o-Q. Net interest margin (NIM) is seen moderating slightly to 4.2 per cent from 4.3 per cent Q-o-Q.
 
However, amid lower other income, Nomura expects ICICI Bank’s net profit to rise 8 per cent Y-o-Y, but down 5 per cent Q-o-Q, to Rs 11,140 crore.

 

KR Choksey

In a slightly optimistic view, analysts at KR Choksey see ICICI Bank's loan book growth at 15.4 per cent Y-o-Y and 4.3 per cent Q-o-Q at Rs 13.36 trillion. It projects growth to be broad-based across all segments.
 
Deposits are anticipated to increase by 15.9 per cent Y-o-Y and 3.1 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 15.43 trillion.
 
The NII, thus, is projected at Rs 20,850.6 crore; operating profit at Rs 16,723.1 crore; and net profit at Rs 11,244 crore.

 

Emkay Global Financial Services

The brokerage said it expects NIMs to remain largely flat Q-o-Q at 4.2 per cent, which, coupled with contained provisions, should lead to better profitability vs peers.
 
The brokerage sees ICICI Bank’s Q3 profit at Rs 11,683.4 crore, clocking a growth of 14 per cent Y-o-Y and down just 0.5 per cent Q-o-Q.
 
Operating profit is also anticipated to be up 0.6 per cent Q-o-Q and 14.3 per cent Y-o-Y at Rs 3,619.4 crore.
 
Slippages, Emkay Global said, could be lower Q-o-Q due to lower stress from the agri book.

 

Mirae Asset Sharekhan

The brokerage projects ICICI Bank Q3 Advances to grow by around 15 per cent Y-o-Y, aided by broad based growth in all segments. It sees NII growth at 10.6 per cent Y-o-Y and 3 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 20,652 crore.
 
On the profitability front, net profit is estimated at Rs 11,497 crore, up 11.9 per cent Y-o-Y but down 2 per cent Q-o-Q.
 
Operating profit, it said, may fall 0.4 per cent Q-o-Q and rise 13 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 16,652 crore.
 
Key monitorable, Mirae Asset Sharekhan said, would-be deposit growth and margins outlook.
 

Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Motilal Oswal said it expects the business growth to remain healthy. It sees loan growth at 15.1 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 13.27 trillion. Deposits, on the other hand, are pegged at Rs 15.65 trillion, clocking an annual growth of 17.5 per cent.
 
The brokerage expects cost ratios to remain elevated with margins anticipated to witness a mild moderation.
 
Motilal Oswal Financial Services expect asset quality ratio to be steady with the gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio seen at 2 per cent (flat Q-o-Q) and NNPA at 0.4 per cent (flat Q-o-Q).
 

Elara Capital

Elara Capital said ICICI Bank may report yet another steady quarter, with steady loan growth (14.6 per cent Y-o-Y/3.5 per cent Q-o-Q) and deposit growth (16.9 per cent Y-o-Y/4 per cent Q-o-Q).
 
The drift towards higher retail term deposit (TD) growth may push CASA ratio down, in turn impacting deposit cost as well.  
 
It expects 3-4bps NIM decline Q-o-Q to 4.3 per cent, largely getting impacted from funding cost feeding into softer NII growth. NII is estimated at Rs 205,45.9 crore, up 10 per cent on year, and 2.5 per cent sequentially.
 
As it anticipates some benefits on opex helping operating profit growth, it projects the same at Rs 16,996 crore with core operating profit at Rs 16,396 crore.
 
Slippages are likely to rise Q-o-Q given the KCC quarter. This, with steady recovery, would feed into slightly higher NPAs and slightly higher credit cost.
 
It pegs net profit at Rs 11,446 crore, up 11.4 per cent Y-o-Y but down 2.6 per cent Q-o-Q. 
 

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First Published: Jan 23 2025 | 2:51 PM IST

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