Gold, silver, tea, coffee, oil: Commodity price rally over, say analysts

Since oil and gas prices did not join other commodities in their run up in the last few months, analysts believe they are likely to remain sideways at best, unless geopolitical events trigger a rally

The uptick in commodity cycle may be over, at least for now, suggest analysts and expect prices of most commodities to remain sideways or remain under pressure in the months ahead.

 

Base metals such as copper, zinc and lead to iron ore, gold, silver, platinum and palladium – prices of commodities have slipped up to 21 per cent since their 52-week high levels hit in late January 2026, data shows.

 

Gold, for instance, according to G Chokkalingam, founder and head of research at Equinomics Research, that saw a long-term average return of around 6 per cent annually jumped 100 per cent within a year. Investors, he said, got an opportunity to cash out of the yellow metal given the run and they encashed.

 

 

“Commodity rally of the current cycle is largely over. The recent fall in metals also coincided with a major fall in crypto currencies and technology-related stocks. It would be an ideal strategy to book profits in most commodities even now,” Chokkalingam suggests.

 

Since oil and gas prices did not join other commodities in their run up in the last few months, analysts believe they are likely to remain sideways at best, unless geopolitical developments trigger a short-term rally.

 

“Metals (precious and industrial) are likely to be highly volatile and would ultimately fall at least another 10 per cent in the next 6 months. A possible slowdown in global economic growth, meltdown in major asset classes like crypto and technology stocks could be some of the risks for commodity prices going ahead,” Chokkalingam said.

 

Oil & gas

 

The worst hit among commodities has been natural gas that saw its prices drop nearly 62 per cent from its 52-week high of $7.83 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) hit on January 28, 2026 to $2.99 as on February 16, data shows.

 

Brent crude, too, has slipped around 13.3 per cent from its 52-week high of $78.31 a barrel levels hit on June 18, 2025 to $67.9 now, data shows.

 

Oil prices, said Ambareesh Baliga, an independent market analyst, could decline since supply is expected to outpace the demand in 2026. For most other commodities, the FoMo effect has played out in the last few months, he said, and every rise in the commodity prices now will be sold into, since at every level investors are stuck and would look for an exit. 

 

“For oil and gas, the only risk seems to be geo-political issues escalating – especially US-Iran in the near term. Natural gas has already corrected, thus expecting it to stabilise. Precious metals could remain volatile with a negative bias, unless some major untoward happens on the geo-political scene,” Baliga said.

 

Analysts at Rabobank International expect Brent crude to trade around $60 in Q1-CY26, then average $58-$60 for the rest of the year. “We expect a few steep, short selloffs sub-$55 throughout the year as the narratives around oversupply panic and overshoot,” wrote Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit of Rabobank International in their 2026 outlook report on crude oil.

 

Agri commodities

 

In the agri commodity space, prices of coffee, corn, cotton (No. 2), soybean futures, sugar and wheat have tanked up to 29 per cent in the international markets from their respective 52-week high levels hit in 2025, data shows.

 

The fall in edible oils, pulses, coffee etc., said T Gnanasekar, director at CommTrendz, has mostly been on account of lack of Chinese buying due to trade-related issues. The agri-commodity basket, he said, is governed largely by demand and supply dynamics.

 

“Lack of China in the grains market due to trade deal related uncertainty has impacted sentiment. The road ahead (for prices) will depend on how fast the countries can come up with trade deals. That said, there will be a supply response as well. Since most farmers have made losses in the last two-three years, I expect production to get curtailed, which in turn is likely to balance out prices,” Gnanasekar said.