RIL can tank 20% from here to 46-mth low, trades below this key trend line

Reliance share price was quoting at a 15-month low, and below its super trend line support on the monthly scale for the first-time since April 2014; here's a technical outlook on the stock.

After weeks of struggle around its 100-WMA (Weekly Moving Average), Reliance stock eventually resumed its downtrend in the latter half of February. The stock has now shed 8.5 per cent since the end of January, and 28.2 per cent from its all-time high of Rs 1,609 registered in July 2024.  The sharp fall in yesterday's trading sessions, saw Reliance stock fall to a 15-month low. And more importantly, the stock is now seen trading below its super trend line support on the monthly scale for the first time in almost 11 years. The stock last traded below this key long-term indicator in April 2014. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  Amid the recent market fall, Reliance stock until February was somehow seen holding the monthly super trend line support, which stood at Rs 1,200. However, for the last two trading sessions the stock is consistently seen trading below the same, and a monthly close below the same could signal end of its 11-year long-term uptrend.  On Tuesday, the stock traded with a slight negative bias at Rs 1,167. Meanwhile, Reliance in an stock exchange filing said that the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas issued a demand of $2.81 billion to the company and its consortium partners - BP Exploration (Alpha) and NIKO (NECO) - over a long-standing dispute concerning gas migration from ONGC's blocks to the KG-D6 block. READ MORE  At present, Reliance (RIL) stock trades at a major inflection point with a weak bias. Given this background, here's a technical outlook on the stock for the likely trend ahead.   Reliance Industries (RIL)  Current Price: Rs 1,167  Downside Risk: 19.9%  Support: Rs 1,135; Rs 1,107; Rs 1,000-mark  Resistance: Rs 1,175; Rs 1,260  RIL stock is seen trading with a negative bias across time-frames, as the stock trades below all its key moving averages. In the very near-term, the stock is expected to witness downward pressure as long as it trades below Rs 1,175. Whereas, the overall bias for the stock is expected to remain bearish as long as the stock trades below Rs 1,260 hurdle.    On the downside, RIL stock seems headed towards the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands on the monthly scale, which stands at Rs 1,065. However, given the overall bearish set-up, the stock may extend the fall and test its 100-MMA (Monthly Moving Average) on the downside, which indicates a likely test of Rs 935-odd levels - a downside risk of 19.9 per cent from present levels.  In the process, the stock which now trades at a 15-month low can be then seen trading at roughly 46-month or a 4-year low, if RIL shares were to fall to these levels within the next two months. Interim support for the stock can be anticipated around Rs 1,135, Rs 1,107 and Rs 1,000-mark. 
 

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