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US-focused funds' outlook in 2026: Expect consolidation, moderate returns

US-focused mutual funds surged in 2025 on an AI-led rally. In 2026, expect consolidation and moderate returns; rebalance mega-cap tech exposure and invest in phases

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The US equity rally over the past year was highly concentrated, with a handful of large technology companies accounting for a disproportionate share of index gains.

Himali Patel

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US-focused mutual funds offered by Indian asset management companies delivered strong gains in 2025. Benchmark indices, such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, have posted returns of 16–20 per cent over the past year, driven largely by a narrow group of mega-cap technology and artificial intelligence (AI)-linked companies. As they enter 2026, investors will need to rebalance their portfolios to manage risks that may arise from elevated valuations and other uncertainties.
 
How did the AI-led rally drive US markets in 2025? 
The US equity rally over the past year was highly concentrated, with a handful of large technology companies