The Himachal Vidhan Sabha has 68 seats. In the 2022 elections the Congress managed to get 40 and formed the government under Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) got 25. The elections returned three independents. For a brief period in 2024, the stability of the Congress government hung in the balance when nine members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) — six Congress and three independents — voted in favour of BJP nominee Harsh Mahajan in the Rajya Sabha polls in February that year. The Congress rebels were disqualified; the independents resigned on their own. When the bypolls were held, six of these nine legislators lost. So, the Congress returned to its tally of 40, bedraggled (the party lost all four Lok Sabha seats from the state) but triumphant.
But that’s about all that the government has to be triumphant about. Already in the throes of an acute financial crisis, for the first time in history the state had to shrink the size of its Budget (2026-27, presented in March), and it was by more than ₹3,500 crore. Although austerity measures announced in the Budget were part of optics (deferred salaries of the chief minister, MLAs and some government employees), and the government, though cash-strapped, still announced a ₹1,500 a month grant for women from low-income families, the Budget showed a contraction in expenditure in crucial sectors (the outlay for social welfare and nutrition was slashed by 56 per cent, for instance). Mr Sukhu attributed this to the Centre’s withdrawal of the revenue-deficit grant (RDG) and warned that the state could lose up to ₹8,000 crore annually in the future.
Himachal Pradesh does not know grinding poverty. But it has been chronically revenue-deficient. The job outlook remains dismal and the government continues to be the largest employer, which has its own implications for its salaries, pensions and dearness allowance. Every government faces the same dreary fiscal dilemmas. And as Himachal Pradesh is a two-party state with little room for independents or new parties (the Aam Aadmi Party tried but got less than 1 per cent of the vote in the last Assembly elections), the incoming government, whatever its colour, will likely face the same financial problems.
Could new faces come up with new thinking? Mr Sukhu’s biggest rival in the Congress is Deputy Chief Minister Mukesh Agnihotri. He has asked Mr Sukhu’s (and his own) government to get its act together. The last such warning was six months ago and he charged bureaucrats with gaming the system. There is no evidence of new policy ideas.
While the BJP has been sneering at the government’s performance, those who are leading it have offered few solutions for Himachal Pradesh’s salvation. Freed of his party responsibilities now that the BJP has a new national president, Union Health Minister J P Nadda has had many years of experience both in the state and at the Centre but has not really articulated a vision for the state. Jairam Thakur, current leader of the Opposition in the Assembly, is a well-known figure. There are others champing at the bit. Bikram Thakur, a four-term MLA, began his life in penury, served the Rashtriya Swyamsevak Sangh via the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad and the Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh, and got one term as minister. In his mid-50s, he belongs to Kangra district. Also from the district is Anurag Thakur, former Union minister (till 2024), though people would really like to know why he is “former” and not “current”. Indu Bala Goswami lost the Assembly election from Palampur in 2017, was nominated to the Rajya Sabha, and was not given a second term when her membership ended a few weeks ago. She has headed the BJP Mahila Morcha in the state, though she has a less than cordial relationship with Jairam Thakur.
There is one thing in common among the current crop of BJP politicians in Himachal Pradesh. They have all worked with Narendra Modi when he was in charge of the party in the state from 1995 to 1998. He is well aware of both the personalities and their ambitions.
If elections to urban local bodies held a few weeks ago are any guide, the BJP has a slight advantage, although its result in Kangra, widely believed to be the gateway to power, was suboptimal. The Congress has had to face a setback. Of the four municipal corporations where parties contested on their flag — Mandi, Dharamsala, Solan and Palampur — the Congress won only Palampur. This reflects the performance of the MLAs.
Although it is early days yet, the two parties have quietly begun strategising. The theme is: Incumbency and its enemies.
 "Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu, HP CM")