Promise and delivery: Record turnout at polls reflected demand for change

The most humbling lessons of anti-incumbency, however, came from West Bengal, where the BJP finally fulfilled its ambition of ousting Mamata Banerjee's TMC after the latter's 15 years in power

Except Assam and the Union territory of Puducherry, the principal message from the results on Monday of the Assembly elections is that the voters are looking for change. Nothing demonstrated this better than the strong showing by the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), an underestimated two-year-old party founded by a 51-year-old actor-turned-politician, Joseph Vijay Chandrashekhar (popularly known as Vijay). The TVK has given two entrenched and storied political parties in the state — the incumbent Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and its perennial opponent, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) — a run for their money. Vijay leveraged his enormous star power to present himself as a “disruptive” alternative — which nevertheless included proposals for hefty freebies, including cash and gold, along with scholarships targeting women and youth voters who turned out in large numbers. In Kerala, the electorate reverted to type, by swinging between two established political coalitions. The Congress-led United Democratic Front managed to overturn a historic two-term victory of Pinarayi Vijayan’s Left Democratic Front by a generous margin.

 

The most humbling lessons of anti-incumbency, however, came from West Bengal, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) finally fulfilled its ambition of ousting Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) after the latter’s 15 years in power. The record turnout across both phases and the sheer scale of victory make it clear that the impact of the undoubtedly controversial Special Intensive Revision (SIR) did not play such a critical role in the election outcome. The TMC miscalculated by making it front and centre of its election campaign. This did not help downplay the increasingly erratic nature of Ms Banerjee’s governance. Stagnating investment, growing party corruption, a non-empathetic approach to women’s safety, and mounting political violence all played their part in the growing disenchantment of young voters and women. The TMC government’s opposition to central schemes like the Ayushman Bharat-Pradhan Mantri Jan Aarogya Yojana may also have played a role. Ms Banerjee’s policy of appeasing minorities as a “safe” vote bank also militated against her when an Opposition in the shape of the BJP presented itself as a credible alternative. It speaks volumes for Ms Banerjee’s governance record that the BJP is reported to have made notable inroads into several Muslim-dominated constituencies.

 

Once the final results are out, the real business of governance will test the mettle of the incoming governments. In Tamil Nadu, where the TVK will probably need allies to form the government, Vijay may find debt and fiscal position diminishing the generosity of the welfare schemes he has promised. These include a ₹2,500 monthly allowance for women; marriage assistance for poor women (gold and a silk saree); free cooking gas, transport, and hygiene products for poor women; scholarships; and starter loans. In Kerala, the principal challenge lies in managing the immediate crisis of the diminution of Gulf jobs and remittances, which have long disguised the lack of economic growth and jobs in the state. In multicultural West Bengal, the BJP’s “development” agenda will be tested against the overt communal polarisation of Bengali society. Balancing these competing forces will entail reversing land laws, tamping down decades of political violence, and making the state business-friendly after many decades. As parties have discovered in the past, bridging the gulf between winning and governing can be a challenge.