Page 13 - Gdp

Economic think-tank NIPFP projects India's FY25 GDP growth at 7.1%

Economic think-tank National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP) on Friday said it has estimated India's GDP growth at 7.1 per cent for the current fiscal, using high-frequency models. NIPFP, in a series of tweets, said the Centre is on a fiscal consolidation path through buoyancy in taxes and revenue expenditure compression. The economic think tank said that in 2023-24, states' capex growth is robust due to significant capex transfers from the Centre. While the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Fitch Ratings have estimated India's growth at 7 per cent, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), S&P Global Ratings and Morgan Stanley projected a 6.8 per cent growth rate for FY25.

Global warming of 3 degrees Celsius may result in 10% GDP loss: ETH study

Warming of the planet by 3 degrees Celsius may cost the world up to 10 per cent of its GDP, a new research has found. It also found that poorer, tropical countries could see the worst effects -- up to 17 per cent GDP loss. The study -- led by ETH Zurich, Switzerland, and published in the Nature Climate Change journal -- suggested that roughly half of the predicted global economic damage could be related to extreme heat, with heat waves being the most impactful among the extreme events analysed. "Impacts are more severe in the Global South and highest in Africa and the Middle East, where higher initial temperatures make countries particularly vulnerable to additional warming," the authors wrote. The researchers further found that the cost of climate change increased around the world after accounting for changes in rainfall and temperatures occurring within a short span at a location. "If we take into account that warmer years also come with changes in rainfall and temperature ...

IMF raises India's GDP growth forecast by 30 bps to 6.8% for FY25

Also sees world economy growing faster at 3.2% in 2024

China's Q1 GDP grows 5.3% amid continued crisis in property sector

China's economy grew at 5.3 per cent in the first quarter, making a stronger-than-expected start to the year even as the downturn of its property market continued while the domestic demand remained subdued. The GDP grew 5.3 per cent year on year to 29.63 trillion yuan (about USD 4.17 trillion) in the first three months of 2024, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Tuesday. The pace accelerated from 5.2 per cent overall GDP growth for 2023, appearing on course to meet the target set by the government at around five per cent. On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded by 1.6 per cent in the first three months of this year, according to the NBS. "China's high-quality development has made new achievements in the first quarter. The national economy has sustained recovery momentum and got off to a good start," Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Head of the NBS, said at a press conference. Sheng mentioned positive factors during this period, such as rising production demand, sta

What does the NSS data imply for GDP estimates?

What can we learn from the latest survey? Before we answer this question, we need to recognise the limitations of comparing NSS figures with the ones from the NIA

States fiscal deficits for FY24 likely to be close to 3.1% of GDP: Citi

The report suggests grants from Centre to states have been falling due to no GST compensation funds and lower finance commission grants

Debt settlement offers immediate relief but damages your credit score

A debt settlement involves negotiating a single payment with the creditor that is lower than the amount owed

Ratio of GST collections to GDP is increasing, albeit at a slow pace

GST receipts rose more than GDP growth in nominal terms in the past three years. But buoyancy came down from 1.6 to 1.3 during the period

Household debt registered new high by Q3FY24, savings plummeted: Report

A report by Motilal Oswal said that households' net savings plummeted to a six-year low level of 18.4 per cent of GDP

'Public investment of 2% of GDP can create 11 mn jobs, majority for women'

Direct public investment of 2 per cent of India's GDP can potentially generate 11 million jobs, nearly 70 per cent of which will go to women, according to a report released by Ficci Ladies Organisation (FLO) on Wednesday. The FLO also unveiled a roadmap for transforming India's care economy, including five key areas, leave policies, care service subsidies, investment in care infrastructure, skill training for care workers, and quality assurance mechanisms. "In India, the Ministry of Labour and Employment can consider supporting MSMEs and startups financially for maternity leave, revising parental leave policies, and promoting care work leave and flexible work options. This could include introducing market-based financing for leave, such as parental leave insurance. Employers are encouraged to adopt gender-neutral care work leave and flexible work options," Ficci Ladies Organisation (FLO) stated. It said collaboration between government agencies and industry bodies can promote these

S&P Global raises India's FY25 GDP growth forecast by 40 bps to 6.8%

Agency's projection is lower than the Reserve Bank of India's and the government's growth estimate of 7%

India needs to grow at 8% to create sufficient jobs: IMF's KV Subramanian

India needs to grow at 8 per cent on sustained basis to create sufficient jobs to reduce poverty and inequality, India's executive director at International Monetary Fund (IMF) Krishnamurthy Venkata Subramanian said on Wednesday. India's economy grew by better-than-expected 8.4 per cent in the final three months of 2023 - the fastest pace in one-and-half years. "We should be impatient even if we grow at 7 per cent. We should be looking to grow at 8 per cent and above, as the country needs to create a lot of infrastructure," Subramanian said, addressing an event organised by OMI Foundation. "By growing at 8 per cent, we have the potential to create a lot of jobs, thereby reducing poverty and inequality," the former CEA said. The growth rate in October-December was higher than the growth rate of 7.6 per cent in the previous three years, and it helped take the estimate for the current fiscal (April 2023 to March 2024) to 7.6 per cent, according to the data released by the National ...

Smallcap stocks unlikely to enter the bear market soon, shows data

Amid the turmoil in the smallcap space, ISec believes stocks with high earnings yield and price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio would offer better margin of safety

India's Q3 GDP numbers are 'absolutely mystifying': Arvind Subramanian

Former chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian on Friday said India's latest GDP numbers are 'absolutely mystifying' and difficult to comprehend. India's economy grew by better-than-expected 8.4 per cent in the final three months of 2023 - the fastest pace in one-and-half years. "I want to be honest with you that the latest GDP numbers, I just simply can not understand them. "I say that with genuine respect and things. They are absolutely mystifying. They don't add up. I don't know what they mean," Subramanian said while speaking at the India Today conclave. The NSO has also revised GDP estimates for the first and second quarters of this fiscal to 8.2 per cent and 8.1 per cent from 7.8 per cent and 7.6 per cent, respectively. Elaborating further, Subramanian said while the implied inflation in these numbers is 1 to 1.5 per cent, actual inflation in the economy is somewhere between 3 and 5 per cent. "The economy is growing at seven and a half per cent, even though private consum

India's current account deficit likely to narrow below 1% in FY24

CAD implies the country is importing more goods and services in value than exports

FY24 GDP growth to be closer to 8% on higher activity in industry: CEA

India's real GDP growth in FY24 will be "closer" to 8 per cent on higher activity in industry and services verticals, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said on Tuesday. Addressing a conference organised by ARIA (Association of Registered Investment Advisors) virtually, Nageswaran said the growth will be higher than the Ministry of Statistics' estimate of 7.6 per cent, and added that there is much reason to be optimistic in the near term about the prospects in India. "...unless the Q4 GDP numbers fall very significantly from the momentum that we have seen in the first three quarters, the GDP will be closer to 8 per cent rather than 7.6 per cent as the Ministry of Statistics is currently estimating," Nageswaran said. However, he stressed on the need to put heads down and work towards the goal without "succumbing to triumphalism and exuberance". "As a country, we should realize that we are in it for the longer haul, not for the short term," he said, adding that the ...

Moody's ups GDP forecast, India to remain fastest growing G20 nation

Moody's Ratings on Thursday raised India's GDP growth forecast for FY24 to around 8 per cent from 6.6 per cent on the back of strong domestic consumption and capital expenditure. The estimate comes a day after RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the economic growth in the current financial year could be close to 8 per cent in view of the third quarter GDP data released by the government. The latest estimate of Moody's is about 140 basis points higher than the earlier projection of 6.6 per cent made in November 2023. The National Statistical Office (NSO) has projected 8.4 per cent growth in December quarter of the current financial year. It has also revised GDP estimates for the first and second quarters to 8.2 per cent and 8.1 per cent from 7.8 per cent and 7.6 per cent, respectively. "We expect India to be the fastest-growing economy among major G20 countries, with its real GDP growth to accelerate to around 8 per cent in the fiscal year ending March 2024 (fiscal 2023-24) from 7 per

Annual GDP growth for current FY could be very close to 8%: RBI chief Das

Das said rural demand had been improving and was much stronger than a year ago, while urban demand continued to be very strong

Sri Lanka hopes to seek respite from debt repayment: Wickremesinghe

Sri Lanka hopes to avoid repaying debt till December 2027 after the completion of the ongoing restructuring process and repay them in the period running up to 2042, President Ranil Wickremesinghe said on Wednesday, as he defended his unpopular reform plans to revive the bankrupt economy. Sri Lanka is currently stuck with debt restructuring with negotiations taking a long to reach an agreement. By 2022, Sri Lanka had to meet external debt repayments worth 6 billion per year. It is 9.5 per cent of the GDP and an amount hard to sustain," he said. "We hope to reduce this to 4.5 per cent of the GDP by debt restructuring, Wickremesinghe, also the cash-strapped island nation's finance minister, stressed. Currently we are actively engaged in discussions regarding the restructuring of all loans including domestic and foreign loans. We are optimistic that these negotiations will reach a successful resolution soon. Our goal is to obtain temporary relief from debt defaults from 2023 to 2027. .

Smallcaps not in extreme bubble territory: IIFL Securities chairman & MD

Venkataraman observes that markets will also receive support from monetary easing globally