US soybean farmers urge Donald Trump to strike purchase deal with China

US exporters are facing hurdles as China is diversifying its farm imports, cutting reliance on American soybeans

Grain traders worldwide are closely monitoring negotiations between the United States (US) and China for indications of progress on agricultural tariffs, news agency Reuters reported on Thursday. The outcome is seen as a crucial test for American farmers seeking to regain access to their largest export market. Senior Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang is in Washington this week for discussions with US officials.

 

Why agriculture matters for bilateral ties 

Farm produce remains the largest US export to China, and a pledge by Beijing to increase purchases is expected to form part of a wider trade deal. President Donald Trump has already pressed China to quadruple its soybean imports.

 

 

However, the talks are overshadowed by memories of the 2020 'Phase 1' agreement, signed during Trump’s first term, parts of which were never honoured. In particular, China failed to meet its commitment to buy an additional $200 billion worth of US goods across 2020 and 2021.

 

China continues to be the top market for American farmers, importing $29.25 billion worth of goods last year. Increased agricultural purchases offer Beijing a significant lever in narrowing the large trade deficit that Trump frequently cites as justification for tariffs.

 

Soybeans illustrate the scale of dependence: the US, the world’s second-largest producer, exported $12.8 billion worth of the oilseed, with China buying nearly half of those shipments. Much of that trade has now stalled due to Chinese tariffs on American soybeans and other farm produce. Imports have declined by more than a quarter since peaking at just over $40 billion in 2022 —roughly matching the annual commitment under the 'Phase 1' deal.

 

What could stall a deal? 

For US exporters to regain those volumes, they would need to displace rivals, particularly in Latin America, which has become an increasingly important supplier to China. According to Chinese customs data, the US share of China’s agricultural imports fell to 12 per cent in 2024 from 20 per cent in 2016, while Brazil’s rose to 22 per cent from 14 per cent.

 

Reversing this shift would mean undoing years of Beijing’s strategy to diversify away from Washington, a policy that accelerated after Trump’s first trade war. Complicating matters further, China is also pushing to reduce its overall reliance on imported food.

 

In April, Beijing unveiled a plan to cut soymeal content in animal feed by ten per cent by 2030. This measure could reduce annual soybean imports by around 10 million tonnes — nearly half of all US soybean exports to China last year.

 

The central role of soybeans 

Given their size and importance, soybeans are expected to play a central role in any Chinese commitment to expand US agricultural purchases. But time is running out for this year’s US crop. Earlier this month, American soybean farmers wrote to Trump urging him to strike a deal with Beijing. They warned of severe economic consequences if China continues to avoid buying US produce.