Commodity rally sparks jump in emerging-market currencies, credit

The rally in commodity prices is bolstering the outlook for emerging-market currencies and boosting parts of credit and stocks even as it fuels concerns about higher inflation.
 
The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index has risen to the highest since 2012 after advancing 8.7 per cent last month in the biggest jump since August. Many investors expect more gains as the world pulls out of the pandemic.
 
That’s helped lift the MSCI EMs Currency Index near a record after it surged 1.5 per cent in April, the most this year. A gauge of global stocks has also continued up after increasing 4.2 per cent last month, the best in four. Corporate debt from Asian metal and mining firms has also outperformed, returning 2 per cent in April compared with just 0.4 per cent for broader Asian emerging-market dollar bonds.
 
Commodity-heavy equities and currencies of countries like Brazil, Mexico, Malaysia and Indonesia are particular beneficiaries, Bloomberg Intelligen­ce’s Gaurav Patankar said. Societe Generale SA notes that the climb signals economic strength that overall supports stocks, even as there are risks to profit margins from inflation.