China pushes India-US closer; tariffs, Pakistan strain ties: D Jaishankar

At a Congressional hearing, ORF's Dhruva Jaishankar said China is accelerating India-US coordination, but tensions over tariffs and US-Pakistan engagement weighs on diplomatic momentum

India and the United States have converged strategically in the Indo-Pacific largely due to shared concerns over China’s assertiveness, but political tensions and renewed US engagement with Pakistan now risk stalling momentum in the relationship, Dhruva Jaishankar told lawmakers in a Congressional hearing on Wednesday (December 10). 

Jaishankar, executive director of Observer Research Foundation America, a Washington-based public policy think tank affiliated with India’s Observer Research Foundation, testified before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on South and Central Asia. He opened by stating that he appeared in his personal capacity as an international relations analyst, not as a representative of the Indian government or of his father, India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. “My testimony reflects my personal views,” he said. 

China’s actions underpin India-US strategic convergence 

Jaishankar’s testimony described a 27-year arc of steadily intensifying strategic partnerships between India and the United States, tied first to economic complementarity and then to security cooperation in response to China’s rise. He noted that this cooperation took an institutional turn under multiple administrations, with agreements enabling interoperability, maritime cooperation, intelligence exchanges, defence co-production and a strategic structure through the Quad. 

According to his testimony, Beijing’s military investments, territorial claims, and cyber activities have accelerated US–India alignment. China’s land and maritime pressure on India, including the 2020 clash in Ladakh, coupled with its naval expansion and cyber intrusions in Asia, has cemented cooperation between New Delhi and Washington across domains such as maritime surveillance, defence technologies, space coordination and critical minerals. He described Indian naval activity expanding across the Indian and Pacific Oceans and the Quad’s role in providing maritime domain awareness. 

Pakistan outreach is creating a political freeze between India-US 

However, he warned that this strategic convergence has reached a “political standstill.” The primary reasons, he said, are disputes over tariff policies and Washington’s outreach to Pakistan’s military leadership. These frictions, he argued, have delayed opportunities to conclude a bilateral trade agreement, raised tariff barriers, and repeatedly postponed a Quad leaders’ summit expected to be hosted by India. 

Highlighting Pakistan as the second major source of friction, Jaishankar described a long history of Islamabad’s support for non-state groups targeting India, culminating in this year’s Indian air strikes under Operation Sindoor in response to the killing of civilians in Jammu and Kashmir. India, he said, now views Pakistan’s army chief consolidating power, renewed US engagement with the Pakistani military, and American security cooperation with Pakistan as complicating factors for New Delhi.

  He cited US concerns regarding Pakistan’s missile capabilities and Beijing’s role as Pakistan’s primary defence provider. New Delhi, He said, has long maintained that issues with Pakistan be resolved bilaterally, and remains cautious of third-party involvement. 

Defence cooperation continues despite disagreements 

Despite these political differences, Jaishankar said cooperation has continued in defence, space, energy and technology. He said space and technology cooperation had progressed, citing an Indian astronaut participating in a joint mission, launch of a co-developed satellite, and a $15 billion US technology investment. India also signed its first major liquefied petroleum gas import contract with the United States. Recent developments also include US approval for defence sales to India, joint military exercises, extradition of a terrorism suspect. 

India-US economic interdependence remains substantial 

The testimony detailed substantial economic interdependence between the two countries. India is among America’s fastest-growing trade partners, hosts 1.79 million US corporate employees, and is home to the largest Indian diaspora anywhere. With 5.2 million Indian-origin residents in the United States, Indian-Americans, he noted, remain deeply embedded in US innovation ecosystems with high educational attainment and business ownership. Trade, investment flows and student movements contribute materially to jobs, revenue and scientific collaboration in both economies, he said.  

Differences over Russia and regional strategies 

Jaishankar also pointed to diverging policies on Russia and regional issues but said these differences have historically been manageable. India’s defence dependence on Russia, he noted, is declining, fuelled by localisation efforts and diversification to Western defence suppliers. India’s partnerships in West Asia with the United States, UAE and Israel, and multilateral initiatives such as I2U2 and the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor, he added, illustrate expanded cooperation beyond Asia. 

Future ties hinge on tariff settlement and political clarity 

Mapping future areas of cooperation, he cited trade liberalisation, hydrocarbons, critical minerals, semiconductors, civilian nuclear energy, defence co-development, artificial intelligence, and continued Quad engagement as areas where relations can continue to deepen. Much of this, he said, hinges on resolving tariffs and avoiding perceptions of political hostility against India.

Jaishankar concluded that several mechanisms still remain in place to advance cooperation, but achieving the full potential of the partnership requires the political relationship to return to stable footing.