Stomach cancer: Study warns 1.6 million Indians born after 2008 at risk

lobal estimate links 76 per cent of projected lifetime cases to H. pylori and urges mass screening, with India expected to see over 1.6 million cases

Over 15.6 million people born between 2008 and 2017 may develop stomach cancer during their lifetime, most of them in Asia, and many in India, a new global estimate warns.

 

According to researchers, 76 per cent of these future cases are linked to Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori), a common but treatable bacterial infection. The study projects that India alone could account for over 1.6 million cases if current control measures are not enhanced.

 

These findings come from a new study titled Global lifetime estimates of expected and preventable gastric cancers across 185 countries, published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Medicine. The researchers call for urgent investments in prevention, especially population-wide screening and treatment of H. pylori, to avert a major public health crisis.

What does the study say?

The study, conducted by scientists from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), part of the World Health Organization (WHO), analysed data from the Global Cancer Observatory’s GLOBOCAN 2022 database covering 185 countries. Using United Nations demographic projections, the researchers estimated how many people born between 2008 and 2017 might develop gastric cancer during their lifetimes.

 

It found an estimated 15.6 million cases globally, with the vast majority—two-thirds of them—occurring in Asia. The Americas and Africa follow in projected numbers.

 

China and India are expected to bear the brunt of the burden. Together, they could account for 6.5 million cases. India alone may see 1,657,670 lifetime cases if current preventive and treatment measures don’t improve.

 

Sub-Saharan Africa, while currently showing low rates, may experience a six-fold increase in future cases, raising alarms for healthcare systems in the region.

What’s causing so many cases of stomach cancer?

According to the study, a common stomach bacterium called Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) accounts for 76 per cent of all projected gastric cancer cases.

 

Although H. pylori often causes no symptoms, long-term infection can lead to ulcers and, eventually, cancer. The bacteria is typically acquired in childhood and can persist for decades if untreated.

 

The study highlighted that it is preventable and treatable with a simple course of antibiotics and acid-suppressing medication.

Why is this concerning now?

The study flags two worrying trends:

• Rising cases in younger populations, defying the earlier notion that gastric cancer is mostly a disease of older adults 
• An ageing global population, which could increase the total number of cases even further, putting additional pressure on healthcare systems worldwide

Can stomach cancer be prevented?

The researchers said that up to 75 per cent of future cases could be prevented through timely action. Key strategies include:

• Population-level screening for H. pylori
• Early treatment of infections before they progress to cancer
• Public health campaigns to raise awareness, especially in high-risk areas

 

Countries like Japan and South Korea already have screening programmes in place and have seen success in reducing stomach cancer rates.

What should individuals do to protect themselves?

While national policies are essential, individuals can also take steps:

• Get tested for H. pylori if you have chronic digestive issues
• Maintain good hygiene, as the infection spreads through contaminated food, water, or saliva
• Eat a diet rich in fruits, vegetables, and fibre, which has been shown to lower stomach cancer risks
• Limit salty and smoked foods, which are known risk factors

“While our study findings highlight the potential public health impact of H. pylori screen-and-treat approaches that are evidence-based, relatively simple and effective, and safe and inexpensive to implement—relative to cancer treatment—in mitigating the increasing gastric cancer burden, the importance of continued efforts to develop an H. pylori vaccine needs to be stressed,” the researchers said in the study.

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