'Above-normal' monsoon across India no guarantee for softer inflation

The last time such an event occurred was back in 2010 when between 2010 and 2013, India had two back-to-back years of 'above-normal' rains, followed by 'normal' rains

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday forecasted that all-India average rainfall during the monsoon months may be ‘above-normal’ in 2025. 

 

This may be the fourth time since 1953 that India will cumulatively have two consecutive years of ‘normal’ or ‘above normal’ monsoons. The last time such an event occurred was between 2010 and 2013, when India had two back-to-back years of ‘above-normal’ rains, followed by ‘normal’ rains. IMD classifies ‘normal’ rains when the actual monsoon is between 96-104 per cent of the long period average (LPA), while rains over 104 per cent of the LPA are classified as ‘above-normal’. The LPA average of June to September rains between 2017-2020 is 870 millimetres. The 2025 forecast by IMD has raised hopes of inflation being under control if food production is sufficient. However, data sourced from over 10 years show that all normal monsoon years do not necessarily mean benign consumer-price index inflation and vice versa.  

 

Inflation is determined by multiplicity of factors that includes local demand and supply etc. Also, even if cumulative all-India average rainfall is ‘above-normal’ in any year, large inter-regional variations in monsoon can cause significant impact on farm production. IMD has forecasted ‘below-normal’ rains in Bihar and Tamil Nadu this year.