5 days early, monsoon likely to arrive by May 27 over Kerala coast: IMD

An early onset of the southwest monsoon may boost kharif sowing and farm output, with IMD forecasting rainfall to be above normal at 105 per cent of the LPA this year

The southwest monsoon is likely to hit the Kerala coast on May 27, five days earlier than its usual onset date of June 1, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday.

 

This early onset of the monsoon augurs well for the kharif sowing season if the pace and momentum continues in the coming months. The last time monsoon came early was in 2022 when the rains had arrived on May 29 over the Kerala coast.

 

The 2025 forecast is with a model error of plus and minus four days, the IMD said in a statement.

 

The onset of monsoon over Kerala marks the start of its four-month journey across the mainland, which culminates with rains withdrawing from the far west corner of Rajasthan in September. 

 

The onset date, however, is not any indication of how the rains will progress during the course of its long journey over India. This year, both IMD and private weather forecasting agency Skymet, have predicted a bumper monsoon season with all India cumulative rainfall expected to be either “normal” or “above normal”.

 

A good bountiful monsoon can help in boosting farm production and fill up the reservoirs. The rains also determine the economic well-being of the largely agrarian rural sector. 

 

The IMD, last month, in its first official forecast for the 2025 monsoon said that rains this year could be “above normal”, which quantitatively could be 105 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). 

 

The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus 5 per cent. This is the second year running when IMD has predicted an “above normal” monsoon. The cumulative all India LPA for the June to September rains is 87 centimetres. Rainfall between 96-104 per cent of the LPA is considered normal.

 

Probability wise, the met department had said that there is 59 per cent chance of the southwest monsoon this year being “above normal” and more, 30 percent chance of the rains being “normal” and just 2 per cent chance of them being deficient. 

 

According to the long-range monsoon forecast, the IMD said parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Tamil Nadu, Bihar and the north-eastern states are likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the monsoon season.

 

Normal to above-normal monsoon rainfall was expected in large parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, which form the core monsoon zone (agriculture, primarily rain-fed) of the country.

 

Earlier, Skymet had said that monsoon in 2025 is expected to be “normal” this year at 103 per cent of the LPA.