Direct flights between India and China a possibility now after long halt

But this time, Chinese carriers are unlikely to dominate the market

It has always been a highly restrictive airlines market. But with the advent of the Covid pandemic in early 2020, direct flights between China and India were suspended from both sides and have remained so since then.

 

The frequency of flights between India and China, according to global aviation data company OAG, peaked at 2,588 flights in 2019, dominated by two airlines — China Southern and China Eastern — which controlled over 80 per cent share of the overall market. But it fell dramatically after the pandemic and then the border skirmishes, dropping to just 6 frequencies in the whole year of 2024.

 

But as they resolve the border issues, recent talks between the two governments have now led to the possibility of direct flights being reopened once again, and a framework to begin such flights is already being discussed between the two sides.

 

It also comes at a time when frequency between China and the US is going down sharply, according to OAG, from 10,400 flights in 2019 to 2,500 per annum under the current bilateral agreement — a drop of a staggering 76 per cent. With a large fleet, and growing geopolitical tensions with the US, China is looking at expanding in other shores to compensate for this sharp fall.

 

Of course, that is because the China-India air market is attractive for both. OAG estimates that around 520,000 passengers have travelled indirectly between the two countries annually after the closure of direct connections — from hub airports like Hong Kong, Bangkok, and even Singapore. In 2019, there were over 890,000 passengers who travelled between the two countries directly — the peak year based on data from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA). In 2024 there was no direct passenger commercial flight at all.

 

Clearly, Indian home-grown airlines that have a staggering 1,800 aircraft, including many widebodied, on order will be looking for expanding their markets. IndiGo has already made a public statement that it is awaiting further updates from the aviation ministry on the issue.

 

The airline has flown to China earlier with daily flights from Delhi to Chengdu till early February 2020, and also from Kolkata to Guangzhou in the same month till suspension of air services changed the game. Even Air India, which was flying between Delhi and Shanghai, closed operations during the same time. SpiceJet was one of the first off the block in 2013 with a direct flight between New Delhi and Guangzhou.

 

But this time around, many experts say, Chinese carriers will clearly not be able to dominate the market as they did earlier because a then weak and cash-strapped state-owned Air India conceded the market to them. The scenario is different now with Air India board pushing the airlines now under the Tatas to aggressively move internationally, backed by new aircraft deliveries. And IndiGo is getting deliveries of the A320XLRs, which are perfectly suited to middle-haul operations in China as they can cover distances for up to 11 hours.