Online retail market to grow 2.5x faster than offline till 2030: Deloitte

The overall offline market, however, will continue to be the bigger market, with a total value of $1,605 billion in 2030

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As more and more Indian consumers turn to online channels for shopping, the e-commerce market is expected to grow 2.5 times faster than the offline retail market, according to a report by Deloitte.

The report titled "Future of Retail" added that the size of the overall online market will jump to $325 billion in 2030 from $70 billion in 2022. It will be bigger than the organised retail market, reaching $230 billion in 2030 from $110 billion in 2022.

However, the offline market will continue to be the bigger market, with a total value of $1,605 billion in 2030. In 2022, the size of this market was $860 billion.

In the last five years, the online market in India has gone through a substantial shift. In the report, this has been attributed to "ease of ordering and returns, a robust logistics infrastructure covering over 19,000 pin codes, a digitally savvy consumer base of 220 million online shoppers, and substantial investments from private equity and venture capital firms totalling $23 billion".

"The rapid growth of e-commerce in tier-2 and 3 cities is reshaping the retail landscape. In 2022, these cities accounted for over 60 per cent of the total orders, outpacing tier-1 markets. Tier-3 cities experienced a 65 per cent order volume growth, tier-2 cities witnessed a 50 per cent growth, while tier-1 cities saw 10 per cent growth," the report said.

In the online channel, social commerce is expected to be the biggest contributor accounting for $55 billion worth of value out of $325 billion. It will be followed by quick commerce at $40 billion and direct-to-customer (D2C) at $20 billion.

In the offline market, traditional channels will account for $1,375 billion out of $1,605 billion. It will be followed by organised retail channels at $230 billion.

The e-commerce channel in India has been seeing a rising interest from private companies and the Centre. Last week, Amazon's chief executive officer (CEO) Andy Jassy met Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the United States and announced that the company will invest in India to $26 billion by 2030.

On the other hand, the Centre's Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) founded Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC) last year to develop open e-commerce in the country.