Record Low Inflation and Strong Rabi Sowing Support Benign Price Outlook for 2025-26

Retail inflation reached an all-time low in the current series, dropping to 0.25 percent in October 2025, down from 1.44 per cent in September 2025 where the decline is largely attributed to the complete impact of reduced GST rates, a favourable base effect and significant falls in food inflation.

Deflationary pressures continued in food prices which decreased by 5 per centthe steepest decline in over a decade driven by price corrections in vegetables, particularly tomatoes, onions and potatoes as well as a continued easing in the prices of pulses. Meanwhile, core inflation held steady at 4.3 per cent, indicating stable demand conditions in the economy.

Inflation during April-October 2025 stood at 4.8 per cent, reflecting a consistent easing of price pressures throughout the year. The Monetary Policy Committee, noting the marked easing in headline inflation, has revised its inflation projection for 202526 to 2.6 per cent reflecting confidence that inflation will remain well-anchored, contingent on normal weather patterns and the absence of supply-side disruptions.

The Rabi sowing season has commenced with the total area sown reaching 22.97 million hectares as of November 21, 2025, representing a 14.8 per cent increase compared to the same period in the previous year. The areas sown for major Rabi crops, including wheat and gram, have risen by 19.9 per cent and 8.9 per cent supported by adequate soil moisture and reservoir levels that remain significantly above the long-term average. Furthermore, the Kharif marketing season for 2025-26 is proceeding smoothly, with 170.9 lakh metric tons procured as of 20 Nov 2025, thereby bolstering overall agricultural supply dynamics.

Powered by Capital Market - Live News