A $738 bn potential: 9 sectors set to redraw India's global growth map

Indian companies could achieve disproportionate growth through distinctly Indian capabilities in nine transformative sectors in the global arena, which could collectively yield between $588 billion and $738 billion in revenues by 2030, according to estimates by McKinsey & Company. That represents a three and a half fold increase over 2023, which was pegged at between $164-206 billion. 

 

This engine of growth is expected to come from nine sectors: e-commerce, semiconductor, Cloud services, cybersecurity, electric vehicle and battery, artificial intelligence (AI) software and services, space, nuclear fission, and robotics. The sectors were chosen based on either patent activity being twice the median or research and development (R&D) investment outpacing the national average by a factor of two.

 

For instance, in e-commerce, revenue estimates based on McKinsey analysis project a fourfold increase — from $60–70 billion in 2023 to $240–300 billion by 2030. E-commerce accounted for 7–9 per cent of total retail sales in 2022–23; this is projected to rise to 15–17 per cent by 2030. It will also account for around 40 per cent of the total revenue yield of the nine sectors by 2030.

 

Semiconductor revenues — especially with many Indian projects now getting off the ground — are expected to treble from $40–45 billion in 2023 to $100–120 billion by 2030.

 

Interestingly, newer sectors are poised for unprecedented growth. Emerging AI software revenues are projected to grow fivefold to eightfold over the next seven years. Over 77,000 organisations in India have already adopted Copilot, agentic AI is gaining ground, and AI-powered industrialisation is accelerating automation. In tandem, Cloud-related revenues — driven by the data demands of AI — are projected to increase fourfold to fivefold between 2023 and 2030, reaching $70–80 billion.

 

In the much-watched electric vehicle sector, revenues are now expected to take off, increasing sixfold to eightfold to touch $40–60 billion by the end of the decade.

 

Other sectors are quietly unleashing their potential. In nuclear fission, revenue yields are projected to grow fourfold to fivefold. In the space sector — where the government is making a big push — revenues are expected to rise fourfold to fivefold by 2030. These areas require large R&D investments: 8–10 per cent of total revenues in nuclear fission, and as much as 4 per cent in space — compared to the industry average of 2 per cent.