Here's why Nuvama sees a strong second half for JSW Infrastructure in FY26

Analysts at Nuvama Institutional Equities remain optimistic on JSW Infrastructure, retaining their Buy rating after the company reported its Q2FY26 financials. The brokerage has pegged a December 2026 target price of ₹360 per share, based on a 22x EV/Ebitda multiple for December 2027.

 

Despite this, JSW Infrastructure shares opened Friday’s session on a weaker note at ₹305, down nearly 1.22 per cent from the previous close, slipping further to ₹298.05 by 09:42 AM—a decline of 3.35 per cent.

 

Analysts Achal Lohade, Pranav Tella, and Harshit Sarawagi described the Q2FY26 performance as broadly in line with expectations. The company reported a 26 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) rise in revenue to ₹12.7 billion, a 17 per cent increase in Ebitda to ₹6.1 billion, and a 16 per cent growth in adjusted PAT. This performance was supported by a modest 3 per cent growth in port volumes, improved realisations, and contributions from the Navkar acquisition.

 

Looking ahead, the brokerage expects a stronger second half of FY26, driven largely by a potential revival in iron ore exports. “The logistics segment (Navkar) delivered robust results again, with revenue up 20 per cent Y-o-Y and improved profitability. Management has reiterated its FY26 guidance of 8–10 per cent cargo growth alongside long-term port capacity and logistics targets,” the report stated.

 

While revising down Ebitda estimates by 5 per cent for FY26 and FY27, and 3 per cent for FY28, the analysts project revenue, Ebitda, and PAT CAGRs of 25 per cent, 21 per cent, and 4 per cent respectively through FY25–28. The target price was adjusted slightly from ₹368 to ₹360, with the Buy recommendation maintained. 

Steady growth, offset by Paradip iron ore slump

JSW Infrastructure’s steady Q2 performance, analysts said, was driven by resilient port volumes and new asset contributions, with cargo volumes rising 3 per cent Y-o-Y to 28.9 million tonnes, thanks to strong showings at SWPL, Jaigarh, and Dharamtar ports. However, this was offset by a sharp 69 per cent Y-o-Y decline in iron ore exports at the Paradip terminal.  The core port Ebitda margin improved marginally to 53 per cent, buoyed by operational efficiencies, better port mix, and higher realisations, though consolidated margins softened to 46–47 per cent due to the lower-margin Navkar logistics business.

Project execution progressing well; guidance intact

Operational momentum remains firm, with interim operations underway at the JNPA liquid terminal and Tuticorin, and steady progress on greenfield projects at Jatadhar, Keni, and Murbe. The Kolkata container terminal concession for Berths 7 and 8 has been signed, with commercial operations expected by Q4FY26. International ventures in Fujairah and Dibba are performing well, while Navkar Logistics posted a robust 20 per cent revenue increase alongside profitability gains.

 

Management reiterated FY26 guidance of 8–10 per cent cargo growth and logistics revenue of ₹700–800 crore, aiming for medium-term targets of 400 MTPA port capacity and ₹8,000 crore logistics revenue by FY30E. 

Positive outlook on balance sheet, growth prospects

According to the analysts, JSW Infrastructure’s strong balance sheet remains a key highlight, with net debt to Ebitda at a conservative 0.75x. Credit rating agencies S&P Global and Fitch have upgraded the company to BBB– (Stable).

 

“Given the timely progress on major projects, favourable coastal cargo demand, and strong execution capabilities, JSW Infrastructure is well-positioned to deliver healthy growth and margin expansion from FY27 onwards as new assets come online,” the analysts added.