Tata Motors CV, TMPV shares rise for 3rd straight day; here's why

Tata Motors said that the growth momentum expected to continue through H2 across segments, while, the GST cut boosted consumption and utilisation, supporting MHCV cargo volume growth

Shares price of Tata Motors, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles today

Shares of Tata Motors (formerly known as TML Commercial Vehicles) and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) continued their upward movement on the BSE in Tuesday’s trading in an otherwise weak market. The stocks of Tata Group automobile companies are quoting higher for the third straight trading day. In comparison, the BSE Sensex remained flat at 85,564 at 1 PM.

 

Among the individual stocks, Tata Motors stock hit a new high of ₹427.9, surging 4 per cent in intra-day trade. In the past two trading days, the stock price of a commercial vehicle (CV) company rallied 8 per cent. Further, in the past one month, Tata Motors has zoomed 34 per cent.

 

Shares of TMPV were up 2 per cent to ₹366.80 in intra-day trade. In the past three trading days, the stock has gained 6 per cent.  FOLLOW STOCK MARKET UPDATES TODAY LIVE

What’s driving Tata Group’s automobile stock price?

Tata Motors’ management expects the company’s free cash flow (FCF) to be consistent with the likely growth in H2 volume. Significant reduction in interest charge as a result of deleveraging, Tata Motors’ interest cost has been kind of coming down, and we will see that quarter-on-quarter.

 

The September 2025 quarter (Q2FY26) saw demand recovery driven by good monsoons and positive sentiment post goods and services tax (GST) rate reduction. On the FY26 outlook, Tata Motors said the growth momentum is expected to continue through H2 across segments. The GST cut boosted consumption and utilization, supporting medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCV) cargo volume growth. The mining, construction, and infrastructure restart to drive tipper demand.

 

S&P Global Ratings believes India’s large and growing economy will support CV demand from higher government spending on infrastructure and construction, along with buoyant consumer spending. Lower interest rates will also help. Adding to the above is India's recent reform of its GST, which could lead to further price reductions and higher fleet utilization. S&P Global Ratings believes this will help lift demand for the intermediate, light, and medium CV segments. As a result, Tata Motors' annual volume sales may increase by low single digits over the next three years, it added.

 

The India M&HCV industry appears to be entering the next upcycle, and analysts at Nomura estimate volumes to grow 8 per cent/10 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in FY26F/27F after a period of modest growth. Rising freight rates, lower GST-led affordability, and a high average age of trucks (~10 years) are likely to drive replacement demand in FY27-28F. Tata Motors CV is positioned to benefit despite its high overseas exposure, as the brokerage firm estimates its acquisition of IVECO’s CV business to be value accretive. Nomura initiated coverage of Tata Motors CV with a Buy rating and target price of ₹481 following its recent demerger. Tata Motors CV’s India business is likely to benefit from the expected upcycle, given its dominant market share of 46 per cent in the domestic MHCV industry in FY25.  ALSO READ | Ola Electric share price rises 4% on hyperservice expansion; details inside 

Meanwhile, Tata Motors PV has secured over 70,000 confirmed bookings within the first 24 hours of opening, with the resurgence of the Sierra nameplate. This performance represents the strongest single-day response for any passenger vehicle in the company’s history, further bolstered by an additional 1.35 lakh prospective buyers currently finalising their configurations, the Business Standard reported. CLICK HERE FOR FULL REPORT

 

Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) is faced with a perfect storm. Its profitability and FCF challenges appear to be bigger than what the analysts had feared. JLR is struggling with demand and profitability headwinds and does not have any new major product interventions to offset it. Analysts at BNP Paribas India see the next cycle of new nameplate additions starting by the FY27-end, when RR Velar’s successor, smaller Defender and new Jaguar model likely get launched. Limited visibility on FCF and demand recovery could raise stock price volatility, in the brokerage view.

 

Key upside risks to SoTP-based target price of ₹360 per share include; strong customer acceptance of new JLR model launches; prolonged mix and pricing benefits, resulting in strong margins and FCF at JLR; successful model launch with China JV leading to volume revival in China; strong response for the revamped Jaguar portfolio; company becoming successful in passing on the luxury tax in China and tariff in the US, without any demand impact, the brokerage firm said.

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