US-China tariff moves, inflation data to steer markets this week: Analysts

Stock market investors this week would track the renewed tariff tensions between the US and China, domestic inflation data, besides, quarterly earnings from blue-chips HCL Tech, Infosys and Reliance Industries would also drive the momentum in equities, analysts said.

Moreover, global market trends and geopolitical developments would also drive investors' sentiments.

"Markets direction this week will hinge on a mix of domestic cues, global macroeconomic trends, and corporate earnings. The renewed escalation of the USChina tariff war, which sparked a sharp sell-off on Wall-Street on Friday, is expected to dampen global risk sentiment. This resurgence in trade tensions could spur dollar outflows, adding further pressure on emerging market equities and currencies," Ponmudi R, CEO Enrich Money, an online trading and wealth tech firm, said.

US markets ended sharply lower on Friday. The Nasdaq Composite tanked 3.56 per cent, while S&P 500 tumbled 2.71 per cent and Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.90 per cent.

"This week will be event-heavy as focus shifts to key domestic macroeconomic data and a busy Q2 FY26 earnings calendar. On the data front, the government will release retail inflation (CPI) figures for September on October 13, followed by wholesale inflation (WPI) on October 14," Ajit Mishra SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.

Investors will keenly watch numbers from IT majors and midcap IT names such as Infosys, HCL Technologies, Wipro, Tech Mahindra, LTIMindtree, along with banking heavyweight Axis Bank, as well as Reliance Industries, he said.

"Globally, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech is expected to guide global cues on monetary policy direction," Mishra added.

Investors would also track trading activity of foreign investors this week, an expert said.

"This week is likely to be crucial as global sentiment turned cautious following a sharp decline in the US markets amid renewed tensions between the US and China," Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.

On the macroeconomic front, focus will shift to the United States, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Tuesday, October 14. His comments will be closely watched for cues on the Fed's interest rate outlook and inflation trajectory, Meena said.

Last week, the BSE benchmark surged 1,293.65 points or 1.59 per cent, and the NSE Nifty climbed 391.1 points or 1.57 per cent.