Voda Idea gains 8% in 2 days, nears 52-week high; analysts up target price

Analysts expect telcos' FY25-28 ARPU to grow at 12% CAGR given the consolidated industry structure, to ensure a '3+1' player market and higher ARPU requirement for Jio.

Vodafone Idea share price today

 

The share price of Vodafone Idea continued its upward movement, gaining 3 per cent to ₹11.07 on the BSE in Wednesday’s intra-day trade backed by heavy volumes. In the past two trading days, the stock price of the telecom services has surged 8 per cent. 

 

Vodafone Idea was quoting close to its 52-week high of ₹11.08 hit on November 14, 2025. It has bounced back 81 per cent from its 52-week low of ₹6.12 touched on August 14, 2025.

 

At 09:33 AM; Vodafone Idea was trading 2 per cent higher at ₹10.91, as compared to 0.22 per cent rise in the BSE Sensex. In the first 18 minutes of trade, a combined 218 million equity shares changed hands on the NSE and BSE. 

 

Why are Vodafone Idea shares in focus?

 

Analysts at JM Financial Institutional Securities said they continue to expect telcos’ FY25-28 average revenue per user (ARPU) to grow at 12 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) given the consolidated industry structure, to ensure a ‘3+1’ player market and higher ARPU requirement for Jio not only to justify its significant 5G capex but also given its announced IPO plan for H1CY26.

 

Telcos could see 14-18 per cent EBITDA CAGR over FY25-28 as analysts expect 12 per cent ARPU CAGR led by 6-7 per cent CAGR due to a tariff hike; and 5-6 per cent CAGR due to multiple premiumisation strategies; further, potential repair of industry tariff structure to ‘pay as you use’ model is likely to aid ARPU growth in the long term.

 

Analysts in the telecom sector report said that they believe the industry will switch back to the ‘pay as you use’ tariff structure so that customers who use more data end up paying more. This is likely to allow telcos to go in for a minimal hike in entry level tariff and also for customers whose data consumption is limited; while charging more to premium consumers whose data usage is high and by reducing data allowance on existing low-end data packs.

 

The brokerage firm maintains ADD on Vodafone Idea; and have revised target price to ₹11.5 (from ₹11) as analysts build slightly higher waiver of adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues based on recent positive development around Vodafone Idea’s AGR dues matter.

 

Every increase/decrease in ARPU by ₹10 results in increase/decrease in Vodafone Idea’s consolidated FY27 EBITDA by 3 per cent and (Base Case) valuation by ₹0.9/share. Similarly, every increase/decrease in subscribers by 5 million results in increase/decrease in Vodafone’s consolidated FY27 EBITDA by 0.8 per cent and (Base Case) valuation by ₹0.7/share.

 

Meanwhile, last week on December 2, Vodafone Idea clarified that it has already addressed the AGR issue in earlier disclosures and will update exchanges only if further developments occur. This is in response to the Union Telecom Minister statement that the Centre may finalise the telecom company's AGR relief recommendations in the coming weeks.

 

The Hon’ble Supreme Court via its judgement dated October 27, 2025 and November 3, 2025 has permitted the Government of India to reconsider and take an appropriate decision with reference to the additional AGR demand as well as to comprehensively reassessing and reconciling all AGR dues, including interest and penalty, up to the Financial Year 2016-17. 

 

The management of Vodafone Idea in Q2FY26 earnings conference call on November 11, 2025 said they are in discussion with the Department of Telecommunication (DoT) for next steps on this matter.

 

According to Motilal Oswal Financial Services, the recent Supreme Court judgement allowing the GoI to re-evaluate AGR dues for Vodafone Idea is a positive outcome and could lead to the long-pending debt raise.  However, beyond a potential reduction in AGR dues (the brokerage firm assumes 50 per cent waiver), Vodafone Idea will also require favourable payment terms for both AGR and spectrum dues, along with tariff hikes and a reduction in competitive intensity in customer acquisitions, to ensure a sustained revival.  ===================  Disclaimer: View and outlook shared on the stock belong to the respective brokerages and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers discretion is advised.