Vodafone Idea stock zooms 96% in 4 months, hits 15-month high; here's why

Vodafone Idea stock in focus: Reports suggest that the government is likely to offer an interest-free moratorium of 4 to 5 years to Vi on over ₹83,000-crore pending AGR dues.

Vodafone Idea share price today

 

Share price of Vodafone Idea (Vi) hit a 15-month high of ₹12.02 gaining 3 per cent on the BSE in Monday’s intra-day trade in an otherwise weak market amid heavy volumes. The stock of the telecom services provider was quoting higher for the third straight trading day, surging 12 per cent during the period. 

 

Thus far in the month of December, shares of Vi have soared 21 per cent. The stock was quoting at its highest level since September 18, 2024. It has bounced back 96 per cent from its 52-week low of ₹6.12 touched on August 14, 2025. 

 

At 09:49 AM; Vi was trading 1 per cent higher at ₹11.74, as compared to 0.4 per cent decline in the BSE Sensex. The counter has seen huge trading volumes with a combined 423 million equity shares changing hands on the NSE and BSE.

 

Why has Vodafone Idea stock rallied?

 

According to an Economic Times report, the government is likely to offer an interest-free moratorium of four to five years to Vi on over ₹83,000-crore of its pending statutory dues linked to adjusted gross revenue (AGR), giving immediate relief to the cash-strapped telecom operator.

 

After the moratorium ends, the company will be required to pay arrears in six installments, but the amount is likely to be reduced substantially, to nearly half, after a reassessment of liabilities, the newspaper reported quoting people aware of details.

 

The Supreme Court also, last month, allowed the Centre to create a special package for the cash-strapped telco on its entire AGR liabilities. Once this issue is resolved, the company would possibly be able to secure fresh capital, including its planned raise of ₹25,000 crore.

 

The management of Vi in Q2FY26 earnings conference call on November 11, 2025 said they were in discussions with the Department of Telecommunication (DoT) for next steps on this matter.

 

According to Motilal Oswal Financial Services, beyond a potential reduction in AGR dues (the brokerage firm assume ~50 per cent waiver), Vi will also require favourable payment terms for both AGR and spectrum dues, along with tariff hikes and a reduction in competitive intensity in customer acquisitions, to ensure a sustained revival. The latter two factors are not entirely in Vi’s control, and the brokerage firm would expect competitive intensity to increase if Vi becomes more competitive on subscriber additions.

 

Meanwhile, analysts at JM Financial Institutional Securities said they continue to expect telcos’ FY25-28 average revenue per user (ARPU) to grow at 12 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) given the consolidated industry structure, to ensure a ‘3+1’ player market and higher ARPU requirement for Jio not only to justify its significant 5G capex but also given its announced IPO plan for H1CY26.

 

Telcos could see 14-18 per cent EBITDA CAGR over FY25-28 as analysts expect 12 per cent ARPU CAGR led by 6-7 per cent CAGR due to a tariff hike; and 5-6 per cent CAGR due to multiple premiumisation strategies; further, potential repair of industry tariff structure to ‘pay as you use’ model is likely to aid ARPU growth in the long term. However, currently, Vi quotes above the brokerage firm target price of ₹11.5.   ====================  Disclaimer: View and outlook shared on the stock belong to the respective brokerages and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers discretion is advised.