Vote for stability: Time for India and Bangladesh to rebuild relations

BNP's landslide win opens a chance for political stability in Bangladesh and a reset with India, but reform delivery and minority protection will test the new mandate

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP’s) landslide victory in the elections, held on February 12, offers an opportunity for a nation suffering political turmoil to get back to building on its export-driven economic miracle, which lifted this nation of 180 million people from poverty. Though there are bound to be questions about the legitimacy of this exercise, given that the Awami League, which had dominated the political scene since 2008, was banned from participating, the outcome of the election and the parallel national referendum on sweeping democratic and constitutional reforms signal a desire for normalcy. On the face of it, the overwhelming 216-seat majority secured by the BNP-led alliance can be viewed as an enabler in delivering stability; more so when the alliance led by the Jamaat-e-Islami, the BNP’s former coalition partner, won just 77, though this is its best performance to date. The fact that the Jamaat leaders have agreed to accept the election results, after initially claiming fraud, also augurs well for political stability. Most notable perhaps is the poor showing of the National Citizen Party, founded by student leaders who had led the movement for Sheikh Hasina’s ouster as Prime Minister. It won only six of the 30 it contested. 

The BNP’s first test will be its ability to leverage this mandate and deliver the reforms contained in the July 2025 National Charter, which received a resounding “yes”. The voter turnout for the referendum was 60.26 per cent, marginally higher than 59.44 per cent for the parliamentary elections. Among the 84 proposals the key ones include a limit for the prime-ministerial term, the creation of a 100-seat Upper House, freeing the judiciary and regulatory institutions, provisions for Opposition leaders to head parliamentary committees, and raising the representation of women in Parliament. Though the impulse for these reforms stems from Ms Hasina’s increasingly autocratic regime, the BNP’s record does not inspire confidence, given the disregard of its former leader, the late Khaleda Zia, for institutional independence when in power and current leader Tarique Rahman’s earlier charges of corruption, which led him to 17 years of self-imposed exile. 

For India, wrong-footed by Ms Hasina’s precipitate ouster, the electoral result offers an opportunity to reset relations with a party with which New Delhi has had uneasy relations. Dhaka’s willingness under Begum Zia to entertain Northeast insurgents and Islamic terrorists on Bangladeshi soil as well as the pro-Pakistani tilt stood in sharp contrast to Ms Hasina’s crackdown on these elements and deeper cooperation with India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s early congratulatory call to Mr Rahman clearly signalled intentions for a constructive outreach – both political and economic. There are many pain points to address, starting with rising anti-Indian sentiment for offering Mr Hasina asylum, one symptom of which is the upsurge of attacks on Hindu minorities. Equally, with Bangladeshi immigration becoming a key element of political mobilisation in India, social tensions urgently need to be addressed on both sides of the border. Also brewing are possible tensions over the Teesta water-sharing agreement, which Bangladesh has long viewed as unfair. So far Mr Rahman has spoken of a “relationship of mutual respect and mutual understanding” with India. This is an encouraging foundation on which to repair ties, which have been more mutually beneficial than those with almost any other South Asian country.