Assam's new gun licence push could shift India's arms seizure map

Illegal gun seizures are rising steadily in North and East India even as Assam's new arms licence policy could alter demand dynamics near the Bangladesh border

Compared to the large numbers of weapons seizures in the states in the chart, Assam is puny. The weapons haul of all sorts in the state in the past five years has never crossed 200 in any year.

 

But a recent decision by the Assam government to provide arms licences to indigenous people living in the so-called “vulnerable and remote areas” and those along the border with Bangladesh to help them protect themselves has the potential to change the math. To be fair, the Assam Chief Minister has said the government will not get into the business of procuring guns for anyone but will give out licences to hold arms.

 

The challenge is that there are stiff rules in India against possessing arms. Import of foreign guns is completely prohibited. As a recent article (July 2024) in Indian Police Journal, published biannually by the Bureau of Police Research and Development, notes: “In India, currently, the import of foreign weapons for personal use with the licence is completely prohibited. The (licensed) gun sellers are either using old and second-hand foreign-made guns or they are made and sold in India.” Essentially, there is a shortage of guns compared to the demand for them. (sic)

 

As the chart shows, the number of seizures is going up fairly consistently. The trend is particularly clear for those states that account for the largest share of gun hauls. It also shows the problem is largely confined to North India. Except for Maharashtra in the west, the southern states like Tamil Nadu show far more moderate trends. Those holding licences for arms often hold an illegal gun too. 

 

Remember, the Indian police have the power to seize illegal guns as well as licensed ones used illegally — say, for a crime. The data on seizure of legal guns across the country show that those are minuscule. In 2022, the last reported year, the number was 299, pan-India.

 

“Those who hold licensed guns by definition keep them to protect themselves against a crime. So it is unlikely those numbers will be large in seizures,” said a recently retired top police officer.

 

The data, though not updated after 2022, make some further trends clear. Guns are a difficult problem in three states — Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal. In these three, the largest percentage of guns seized by the police are illegally manufactured. No surprise that the reports of sophisticated illegal gun factories emanate from these states.

 

While Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have larger hauls of firearms, those are not necessarily illegally made guns. In both these states, the largest haul is “other arms”, which could even include sticks and daggers. It could also include rifles to anti-aircraft guns. Anecdotal evidence from Rajasthan would point to the former set, while Naxal-infested Chhattisgarh would have yielded rifles and even other automatic weapons in the list of seizures.

 

The data for the three riparian states of UP, Bihar and West Bengal show it is illegally made arms that dominate the police seizures. The data also show that the seizures have climbed sharply in five years. It was over 33 per cent in UP and a massive 62 per cent in West Bengal. The one-year dip of 2020 was Covid-induced and so to be discounted.

 

Senior police officers are, however, reluctant to buy into this narrative. All those whom this correspondent spoke to were emphatic that the periodic raids and information campaigns against illegal guns have led to the rise in seizures. A favoured district in this context is Munger in Bihar. That area was also the seat of several gun factories in then British India. Once the owners had disappeared, the skilled workers turned to illegal jobs like manufacturing guns. But that does not explain the profusion of gun trade in far-off districts of West Bengal. Munger is not the district where the largest seizures are being made of late.

 

These seizures, often recorded dismally, offer very little clue as to how the extent of gun trade has expanded. That it has, can be gleaned from the trends in Delhi, located just next to UP. While anecdotally the number of crime cases featuring guns has gone up over the years in the capital, the recorded cases of seizures have also gone up.

 

Something more could also be happening. In both Bihar and West Bengal, the data for illegal guns seized is rising almost metronomically. This suggests a challenge in recording of the data rather than developments on the ground. By the way, media reports for the Bengal-Bihar region show that manufacturers have moved on from crafting just single-shot pistols to revolvers. Many of them, as per media reports, also offer exchange value for guns that do not work, showing a high level of competence and comfort with the business. The lathe machines are getting more sophisticated. Demand for licensed arms from Assam could make these units more viable.  Police data on arms seizure  

	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022^
Bihar*	2684 (2303)	3071 (2976)	3253 (3166)	3222 (3130)	3647 (3549)
Chhattisgarh	1291 (951)	1162 (872)	721 (563)	871 (664)	1586 (1228)
Madhya Pradesh	15412 (10975)	15557 (11489)	13158 (9714)	13526 (10731)	13042 (10100)
Maharashtra	2024 ( 1378)	2553 (1603)	2471 (1738)	3630 (2756)	3533 (2873)
Rajasthan	7935 (5222)	7710 (4979)	5751 (2715)	5797 (2700)	6417 (3256)
Uttar Pradesh*	29276 (21723)	33778 (25358)	34599 (26305)	37305 (27403)	39130 (31739)
Punjab	437	435	431	468	634
Tamil nadu	466	631	205	181	962
West Bengal*	2077 (1679)	2077 (1679)	1520 (1099)	2326 (1723)	3367 (2868)

 

* for these states figures in brackets mean unlicensed arms

For other states figures in brackets mean “other arms”  Source: National Crime Records Bureau   ^ data for years after 2022 not yet released