Behind jettisoning the JJP: BJP looks to carefully navigate caste dynamics

The 35-year-old Jat leader Dushyant Chautala confidently asserted that he would not merely play the role of a kingmaker this time around, but would himself ascend to the throne

A day after the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) abruptly parted its way with the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), its leader Dushyant Chautala made a bold proclamation. During a rally in Hisar on March 13, he declared that the JJP would hold the “Key” – the party’s symbol -- to the Vidhan Sabha. He further emphasised that the “Key” would find its way to the Lok Sabha, as well.

The 35-year-old Jat leader confidently asserted that he would not merely play the role of a kingmaker this time around, but would himself ascend to the throne. “We will secure victory in over 50 Assembly seats and march triumphantly to Chandigarh,” Chautala announced from Hisar, his stronghold.

While Chautala delegated the task of determining the number of seats the JJP should contest in the upcoming elections to his father Ajay Chautala and other party members, political observers in Haryana speculate that the self-proclaimed future “king” might risk losing his own Assembly seat (Uchana Kalan in Jind, near Hisar) due to anti-incumbency.  

“Chautala faces the potential risk of defeat in his stronghold in the forthcoming polls. His core voter base remains disillusioned with him for aligning with the BJP-led coalition in 2014 and for his lack of support for farmers during their agitation for minimum support price,” observed Kushal Pal, principal of Indira Gandhi National College-Ladwa (Kurukshetra) and former state coordinator, Lokniti.

 This concern is not without merit: In the four elections Chautala contested since his political debut in 2014 — two Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019, and two Assembly elections in 2014 and 2019 — he has tasted defeat twice, in the 2014 Assembly and 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

Political analysts suggest that the BJP-JJP split, coupled with the transition of leadership from Manohar Lal Khattar to Nayab Singh Saini, underscores the BJP’s strategy of achieving multiple objectives with a single move. They argue that this manoeuvre allows the BJP to gauge Chautala's lingering political influence, mitigate any anti-incumbency sentiment towards the Khattar leadership, and potentially alter the caste dynamics, not only within Haryana but across the nation.

By cutting ties with the JJP ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP seizes an opportunity to evaluate Chautala’s political clout. If the JJP performs well and secures Jat votes, the BJP could potentially reintegrate it through negotiations based on the JJP’s performance across assemblies. Conversely, if the JJP contests independently in all Lok Sabha and Assembly seats, it will tap into the anti-BJP Jat vote bank, which both Congress and Chautala’s estranged uncle Abhay Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) are eyeing. This fragmentation of Opposition votes is seen as advantageous for the BJP, opined Vijay Chauhan, assistant professor and head of the Department of Political Science, Maharana Pratap National College, Mullana.

"In 2014, the BJP heavily polarised Jats and non-Jats. However, in 2019, the BJP shifted its focus to development issues, neglecting caste management. By presenting a Punjabi CM face in the 2019 elections, the BJP failed to win full support of other backward classes (OBC), which led to it falling short of majority. This time, looking to avoid a repetition, the appointment of an OBC chief minister signals a strategic shift,” said Chauhan, adding, “the move also aligns with the BJP's national agenda to attract OBCs.”

By appointing Khattar, an upper-caste Punjabi, as CM, the BJP sought to uphold its non-Jat stance. However, Punjabis constitute less than 5 per cent of Haryana’s population and less than 2 per cent of India’s population. By replacing a Punjabi after approximately a decade with a Saini, an OBC, the BJP has offered representation to a segment representing around 50 per cent of not just Haryana’s population but also the nation’s.

The Saini caste, traditionally associated with the gardening profession (maali), is not only one of the largest OBC groups in the Hindi heartland states, but also stands out as one of the most politically organised peasant communities in India, alongside the Jats, Yadavs, and Kurmis. The Mali community, in addition to the Saini title, also adopts surnames like Maurya, Kushwaha, Koeri, Kachhi, Shakya, and Murao. They constitute between 6 and 10 per cent of the population in states, such as Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh.

Under the leadership of former Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, a Mali, the Congress has had a significant influence on the leadership of the Saini community. The community harboured discontent towards the BJP due to its failure to appoint Keshav Prasad Maurya as chief minister of Uttar Pradesh in 2017. The BJP's strategic move to offer a leadership role to the Saini community could be an attempt to quell this internal discord.

“Bringing Saini into the fold is primarily a political statement aimed at the caste group across various states. It’s intended to signal to them that the BJP acknowledges their presence and political influence,” said Mirza Asmer Beg, professor, the Department of Political Science, Aligarh Muslim University.

Moreover, the BJP plans to leverage Saini for its outreach programmes in all states with a significant Saini population. This is akin to Mohan Yadav's participation in numerous Yadav gatherings in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Haryana since his appointment as CM of Madhya Pradesh in December.

The BJP’s state leadership, however, is sceptical of the benefits of snapping ties with Chautala, and appointing Saini the CM. “Saini appointment’s potential impact may be limited with only six months left until the Assembly elections, and Chautala’s ability to break into Jat votes is doubtful as the community is already upset with him,” a senior Haryana BJP leader said.

 A JJP leader concurred that the Jats may throw their weight behind Hooda. “Many are poised to abandon the JJP ship. Last elections, the Jats strategically voted for candidates of the JJP and the Congress where they saw potential victories. This time, they realise that backing the Congress alone could propel them back to power in the state,” he asserted. 

He noted that Congress secured 31 of 90 seats in the previous elections; the JJP bagged 10. If all JJP seats shift to the Congress, it would only require an additional 5 seats to form the government.

On the other hand, to address potential discontent among Punjabis, the BJP has fielded Khattar  to contest the Lok Sabha polls from Karnal. Senior party leaders have also suggested that Khattar could be considered for a Union Cabinet portfolio should the BJP retain power for the third straight term.