Gold could retest record highs as traders eye Powell's speech, RBI policy

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Gold prices are poised to remain firm and could edge closer to record highs next week as investors await key US data, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech and the Reserve Bank of India's policy decision, analysts said.

"Gold moves out of the consolidation range as investors focus on the manufacturing and services PMI data from across regions, US jobs data, and consumer sentiments," Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd, said.

"Adding to that would be Fed chair Jerome Powell's speech on Monday, developments over the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and RBI policy meeting on Friday, all of which will be closely monitored by traders," he added.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for the February 2026 contract climbed by Rs 3,654, or 2.9 per cent, over the past week to close at Rs 1,29,504 per 10 grams on Friday.

In the domestic markets, "rupee's weakness and local demand have been a significant contributor to gold price volatility in the Indian markets. Demand from festivals, weddings and continued jewellery purchases continues to support precious metal prices in the Indian markets," Prathamesh Mallya, DVP - Research, Non - Agri Commodities and Currencies, Angel One, said.

Mallya added that global central banks' sustained gold accumulation would keep the long-term outlook constructive. "Central banks have been accumulating gold for the past few years, and the trend will continue going into 2026.

Karthick Jonagadla, smallcase Manager and Founder of Quantace Research, said: "For investors, gold is a clean way to express a view on the US real-rate path while staying within a familiar asset."  He added that as long as December cut odds remain elevated, the bias stays moderately positive for bullion, but any data surprise that pushes back against near-term easing can unwind recent gains quickly, so position sizing and hedging discipline are essential.

In the international markets, Comex gold futures for December delivery rose by $138.8, or 3.4 per cent, during the week, and finished at $4,218.3 per ounce on Friday.

"Gold prices rallied more than a per cent, after trading resumed on CME after an 11-hour outage. The bullions remained supported by a weaker US dollar, dovish commentary from a couple of Fed officials and rising bets for an eminent 25 basis points rate cut by the US Federal Reserve," Pranav Mer of JM Financial Services said.

Meanwhile, silver posted a spectacular week outperforming gold.

On the MCX, the white metal futures skyrocketed by Rs 17,104, or 10.83 per cent, over the past week. Silver for March 2026 delivery breached the Rs 1.75 lakh per kilogram level for the first time on Friday.

In overseas trade, Comex silver futures for December delivery jumped by $6.53, or 13.09 per cent, during the week to close at $56.44 an ounce. It rose by $3.53, or 6.68 per cent, to hit a record high of $56.45 per ounce on Friday.

"Silver advanced and moved... to its record high amid dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials and the delayed release of key US data have strengthened confidence that borrowing costs will fall, with swap markets now pricing an 80 to 87 per cent chance of a quarter-point cut next month," Riya Singh - Research Analyst, Commodities and Currency, Emkay Global Financial Services, said.

Echoing similar sentiments, Mer said, silver's rally was amplified by strength in the industrial metals such as copper, as it also hit its lifetime high on the London Metals Exchange (LME).

"Silver prices have given a strong breakout above Rs 1,64,000 per kilogram level and rallied sharply. The momentum can push prices further up towards Rs 1,90,000-2,00,000 per kg levels in short-term, he added.

As rate-cut hopes remain intact, the US dollar under pressure, and safe-haven demand steady amid geopolitical uncertainties, analysts said gold could attempt to retest its record highs if the upcoming data reinforces the easing outlook.