Climate change scenarios are everywhere. These data-driven exercises in mapping out multiple visions of a warmer future appear in corporate sustainability reports, investment portfolio analyses, and consultancy offerings.
Scenario analysis can be a great way of structuring one’s thinking about the future, which is essential to understanding climate change. It’s also time-consuming, sometimes misapplied, and perhaps even slowing down attempts at tackling the actual problem.
Scenario-based decision-making was originally a military tool and made its way into the world of business via Royal Dutch Shell Plc in the 1960s. Up until a few years ago, however, it was still confined

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