In Gujarat, BJP's greatest strength also exposes its weakness

Trends indicate that when voter turnout rises in the state, the party's vote share falls. So when more people in Gujarat come out to vote, they most often are voting for the opposition.

The odds against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the recent Gujarat election were quite high. In power for over two decades, the party was dealing with an inevitable anti-incumbency, distress from demonetisation and a botched Goods and Services Tax, growing discontent among its traditional base of Patidars and traders and a fresh crop of young local leaders. There were several signs that the saffron party may lose Gujarat, what then accounts for the BJP’s remarkable return to power?

Behind the party’s success is a superior electoral machine in which party cadres fan out to every polling station, an astute