‘Covid peak over’: Reasons for the sharp decline in new Covid-19 cases in the country have not yet been clear. The fall is despite travel restrictions easing and economic activities resuming. The government-appointed scientific committee has not spelt out any possible reasons for the trend but two members offer insights into the situation. One reason for the fall could be that super-spreaders have already been infected at the beginning of the pandemic. Individuals who are most likely to meet a lot of other people might have already been infected. Spread of the disease, they say, depends largely on the nature and length of our interactions with others. Avoiding a second wave of infections like the one sweeping across Europe is the most important challenge going forward.
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ICMR cut-off: Experts say ICMR’s announcement of a 100-day cut-off criteria to identify cases of Covid-19 reinfection is arbitrary. ICMR Director General had said that antibodies don’t last beyond 100 days. Experts, however, point out that this is based on an assumed life of antibodies. They say the duration of existence of antibodies varies greatly among people. They also add that won’t have any drastic impact on public health response to Covid. In most cases of reinfections seen in India, the gap ranged from anywhere between 19 days and over 100 days. Due to this new cut-off some cases of reinfection may not be eligible to be classified as such. Central to the debate is the issue of distinguishing between the leftover viral debris from the initial infection and the new infection.
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Festive season key: Santosh Patil, head of the Pimpri-Chinchwad Municipal Corporation, speaks about the response to Covid-19 in the region. He says that the area has been witnessing a decline in daily new cases. However, he says he will have to wait for Dussehra and Diwali to get over. He warns against people relaxing precautionary measures against the virus as a second wave of pandemic is always a possibility. This fear is especially compounded by the fact that festive season is around the corner. Further, he says that officials are tracing 10 contacts for every positive person. Pimpri-Chinchwad’s mortality rate, he says, has hovered around 1.7 per cent. He says he doesn’t think the mortally rate will dip below one per cent while adding that most deaths are among the elderly and those with co-morbidities.
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Reinfection worries: Experts have cautioned against worrying too much about reinfections. One fact that should be kept in mind is that we simply do not know all that much about Covid immunity. Also, at this point, experts don’t know why reinfection seems to happen to some people and how exactly virus mutation might fit into all of that. Further, most statistics related to the proportion of people who’re asymptomatic are largely a guess. Secondly, reinfections themselves seem like an incredibly rare occurrence. While reinfections can have some possible implications on vaccine development it does not render a potential vaccine ineffective.
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