Does a Bayesian approach allow us to understand the trajectory of Covid pandemic?

In tackling the pandemic, India followed an approach similar to the Barbell strategy in finance - hedging for the worst outcome initially, and updating its response step by step via feedback

Covid-19 is a Black Swan event, so one has to take decisions in an uncertain environment. The government had the task of choosing what path to follow in fighting the disease with little available information. Initially, various experts predicted India was going to be the next hot spot and many had spelt doomsday for India with over 300 million cases and 2 million to 2.5 million deaths in the near future. On the other hand, there were others who thought it won’t be too serious.
 
In tackling the pandemic, India followed an approach similar to the Barbell strategy in