Advance estimates of GDP to be released today, may not be closer to reality

The Reserve Bank of India has already cut its earlier projections and now projected the growth to be 5 per cent for the year

The first Advance Estimates of GDP numbers for 2019-20, which would be released on Tuesday, may not be closer to reality if the strike rate of the last two years is any indication. 

Predicting GDP growth for the current fiscal year is tricky. No one believes the earlier projection of GDP growth at 7 per cent given by the Economic Survey for FY20 after economic expansion slowed to over a six-year low of 5 per cent in the first quarter and to 4.5 per cent in the second quarter. 

The Reserve Bank of India has already cut its earlier projections and now projected growth to be 5 per cent for the year. 

GDP growth stood at 4.8 per cent for the first half of the current fiscal year. The issue now is whether growth would pick up or will further slide in the second half, compared  to the first one. 

As indicated in the table below, it is difficult to predict GDP growth in times of uncertainties, say 2008-09, 2011-12, 2017-18 and 2018-19.