Icra narrows its GDP decline forecast for FY21 to 7.8% from 11% earlier

Agency had forecast a small contraction of one per cent during Q3

Icra has pegged the contraction in the economy at 7.8 per cent for 2020-21. Before the GDP numbers for Q2 were out, it had predicted the fall in the economy at 11 per cent. After the release of the numbers, it had given a range of 7-9 per cent for GDP decline.

Icra forecast a small contraction of one per cent in GDP during the third quarter of the year. 

Subsequently, improving economic fundamentals, a bright outlook for the rabi season, and the visibility of vaccine availability are expected to strengthen demand, the agency said. 

Further, an expected revival in exports and a rise in the government spending would contribute to a mild 1.3 per cent growth in the fourth quarter, ending the recession gripping the Indian economy, it said.