India is among the few major nations among emerging and developing economies with higher inflation in October 2020 compared to December 2019 (pre-Covid levels).
Also, among these nations, the rise in core inflation is the highest in India. While core inflation in emerging and developing economies has converged for the first time in 25 years, India (along with Turkey) continues to remain an exception, according to Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
While the market expects headline inflation to ease to 4.2 in India in Q4 from 6.6 per cent in Q2, Motilal Oswal estimated inflation to remain at 6 per cent in December and January of the current financial year before rising back to 6.5 per cent by March and staying at 6 per cent till September 2021. If headline inflation is closer to these forecasts, the mood could change quickly and inflation will become a concern sooner than later.
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