India GDP to fall 45 per cent in June quarter, predicts Goldman Sachs

Predicts a 5 per cent GDP contraction for India in FY21, says recently announced reforms not to have immediate impact on reviving growth

Goldman Sachs now expects India's gross domestic product (GDP) to contract by a record five per cent during 2020-21 against a contraction of 0.4 per cent estimated earlier, saying the reforms announced by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman will not revive economic growth immediately. 

"The -5% growth we forecast for FY21 would be deeper compared to all recessions India has ever experienced," it said. 

The financial services firm pegged fall in the GDP to 45 per cent in the first quarter of the current financial year over the fourth quarter of the previous financial year (annualised) compared to 20 per cent decline projected earlier. 

However, it now expected sharper rebound in the second quarter of FY'21 that forecast earlier. It pegged GDP growth in the quarter at 20 per cent over the previous quarter (annualised) compared to earlier projection of 10 per cent. 

For the next two quarters, the estimates remained unchanged at 14 per cent (Q3) and 6.5 per cent (Q4). 

On a series of structural reforms announced by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman over the past few days, Goldman Sachs said these are more medium-term in nature. "We therefore do not expect these to have an immediate impact on reviving growth," it said. 

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