Irrigation facilities weakening link between rains and crop production

In a report released in February 2023, the finance ministry stated that a return of El Nino conditions in the Pacific could be an indication of a weaker monsoon in India. However, an analysis of the same data points towards a withering association between the monsoon and foodgrain production, according to a report published in Financial Express (FE).

The development of reliable irrigation infrastructure has led to a reduction in the impact of rainfall on crop production. Additionally, climate resilient varieties of crops are being credited for the minimal impact of the monsoon on agricultural output, the report said.

The data related to monsoon and crop production for the decade suggest that despite uneven monsoon rains over the years, Indian agricultural output has remained largely immune to rainfall patterns.

In 2014, when the rains were down 12 per cent compared to the normal benchmark, food grain production in 2014-15 crop year (July-June) declined only 5 per cent, when compared to the previous crop year, the report added.

The data for 2018 suggests a similar phenomenon. Rainfall was down 9 per cent, but the production of rice, wheat, and pulses did not fall in the 2018–19 crop year compared to the previous year.

The report quoted CSC Sekhar, professor, Institute of Economic Growth, University of Delhi, as saying, "Deficient monsoon rains largely do not impact Rabi or winter crops like wheat, pulses, and oilseeds as these crops mostly have irrigation facilities."